Why have Champagne shipments dropped by almost 55m bottles in two years?

Aside from the 2020 Covid-induced blip, Champagne shipments have dropped to a level not seen since the turn of the century – so what are the causes of decline? We find out from the region’s key players. As db reported last month, Champagne shipments in 2024 were 271.4 million bottles, which was down 9.2% from 2023 – a drop of 27.6m bottles on the previous year, when 299m bottles were shipped. With the 2023 figure down just over 8% or 26.5m bottles on the total of 325.5m in 2022, the region has shed more than 50m bottles in two years (54.1m to be exact), and is now shipping volumes worldwide, including the domestic market, that are similar to the quantities of 2001, which were 262.7m (see figures, bottom). Indeed, in this century, only 2000 and the 2020 totals were lower than 2024 – two years both marked by extraordinary events: shipments in 2000 were severely reduced due to overstocking for Millennium celebrations, while 2020 was hit by the first Covid-related lockdowns. So why has Champagne been shedding volumes? As noted in early 2024, the three major reasons for falling sales of Champagne in 2023 were price rises, overstocking and falling consumer confidence. If we move forward to 2024, the trends are broadly similar, though there are differences, which explain the continued decline in shipments over the past 12 months. And, for David Chatillon, who is president of the Champagne Houses and co-president of the Comité Champagne, the region has in fact proved resilient in the face of strong negative influences on consuming a product so closely linked to good times. “The drop of 9% is serious, but it could be worse,” he told db last month. “Everything is against the occasions of drinking Champagne: inflation, political instability in France and the US, and geopolitical issues worldwide,” he added. Such a scenario does mean that the Champenois don’t appear surprised by the year-end shipment figure. “We were expecting it,” said the managing director of Champagne Jacquart Sébastien Briend, when db discussed the 271m bottle shipment total for 2024. However, if there was an element of surprise and disappointment, it was the performance of international markets versus France. “What is different about last year is that exports were worse than the domestic market,” said Briend. “I don’t know when was the last time that France had a better trend than exports, but it was probably 25 years ago,” he continued, before concluding, “But it’s not good news, because both are down. In fact, 2024 saw France drop by 7.2% to total 118.2 million bottles while exports fell 10.8% to hit 153.2 million bottles. However, that does mean that exports represent 56.4% of total sales and remain higher than sales on the domestic market. Briend is clear on why France suffered declines in 2024 – although it is a market that has suffered an ongoing if gradual fall-off in Champagne consumption this century. “Champagne’s largest single market in France, and it’s been a mess, politically and economically,” he recorded. But this key volume consumer for Champagne has not been alone in terms of problems, with the second largest market for the French fizz, the US, also suffering declines – although the exact year-end numbers are yet to be released. Affecting consumer confidence and therefore Champagne sales in North America were elections last year, something that also made an impact on consumption levels in the UK, while several of the Champenois noted that even a normally stable market like Germany was troubled politically and economically in 2024 (and has of course only just concluded its elections). Then there’s been the ongoing situation in Ukraine, and the Middle East. Indeed, few parts of the world were in the mood for popping corks. As Champagne Besserat de Bellefon president Nathalie Doucet said to db with an air of despair, even the once-growing South Korean market has been unsettled – noting that not long after she visited the nation to open up sales for her maison, the impeached president of the country declared martial law. But it’s not just the geopolitics that have affected Champagne shipments in the past 12 months, but an excess of stock in major markets. Speaking of last year, Champagne Taittinger president Vitalie Taittinger told db that shipments were down in 2024 both due to mood-dampening geopolitical factors as well as an excess of bottles in the market at the end of 2023. “Countries were a bit full of stock, so last year was a kind of correction,” she said. That does mean, she stressed, “So we start this year in conditions that are very good.” Indeed, Ruinart CEO Frédéric Dufour believes that because major Champagne markets were running down stocks at the start of 2024, as opposed to ordering more bottles, shipments during the past year don’t reflect consumption, and by some margin. “We know there was an element of correction of stock early last year, so maybe the real number in terms of demand [by consumers] is not far from 290m bottles,” he told db. On the other hand, several Champenois said that year-end shipments may have been inflated to the tune of a couple of million bottles by shipments to the US ahead of 2025, due to fears that the Trump administration would impose tariffs on the product, along with other high-end French goods. That is, among those houses with a large audience and / or subsidiaries in the market. Bollinger MD, Charles-Armand de Belenet explained. “There is a very high probably [the US] will impose a tax on French wines and spirits which is why we decided to ship some volumes to the US [at the end of 2024].” He continued, “So part of the figures were shipments to the US, with maybe 2 million bottles being shipped to the US in advance [of President Trump’s inauguration on 20 January this year].” Aside from these factors, another impact on shipments last year, and in 2023 too, has been the issue of price – Champagne has become more expensive, and at a time when many consumers are feeling their incomes squeezed due to inflation on energy and food, as well as due to servicing debt, such as mortgages, when interest rates are higher. “No one wants to talk about prices, but the price of Champagne has gone up 20-25% in three years, and that’s the reason for the decline [in sales],” said Charles Philipponnat of Champagne Philipponnat. This rise he ascribes to the increase cost of grapes in Champagne. “There has been an increase in the price of grapes and the increase in the price of bottles parallels it,” he told db. He continued, “What we’ve seen for first time is actual substation by crémant and even Prosecco, and that is only because of price.” Concluding, he said, “You see it here in France, and that’s because a bottle of [Brut NV] Philipponnat was €35 and now it’s €45 – it’s a steep step.” On the other hand, price discounting on Champagne has been effective, helping to shift stock and keep consumers drinking the product. And, Bollinger’s de Belenet makes the point that the prices of Champagne on discount are still higher than they were before the pandemic. “If you have a strong brand then you become very attractive when on promotion – consumers jump on it, especially if you think that there has been three years without promotional activity,” he said, referring to the post-Covid rebound and resulting Champagne scarcity. He added, “So it seems like a great deal, even if the promotion price is still higher than in 2019.” “It is wrong to say that people don’t want to drink Champagne any more; if there is the right activitation, then they buy it,” he stated. There are other factors at play too. people are now spending more on travel, which is depleting their disposable incomes for stay-at-home luxuries like drinking fine wine and Champagne, believes de Belenet. “If you look at the travel data, you will see that it is now about 2019, so there has been a huge shift in consumer spending: travelling is still perceived as the ultimate luxury, and it has a huge impact on luxury products and specially luxury wines and spirits,” he said.  Finally, aside from elections, war in the Middle East and Ukraine, falling disposable incomes and rising prices of Champagne, as well as a renewed urge to splurge on travel, there may be another reason why some key Champagne markets performing relatively poorly in 2024 – and that was the weather. Across Europe, and particularly in the major Champagne consuming markets of the UK and France, “the summer was very bad,” pointed out Doucet. she added, “Especially in France, if the weather is bad, you don’t drink Champagne.” However, to finish on a positive note, Pol Roger Portfolio MD James Simpson MW identified at least one benefit to a slight decline in demand for the fine French fizz. As he told db in January, “Sales have slowed down, and, as a result, there’s a bit more age on it, which means that the quality of Champagne is better than it’s ever been.” Champagne shipments (bottles) 2024-1999: 2024: 271m 2023: 299m 2022: 326m 2021: 320m 2020: 245m 2019: 297.5m 2018: 301.9m 2017: 307.3m 2016: 306.1m 2015: 313m 2014: 307m 2013: 305m 2012: 309m 2011: 323m 2010: 319m 2009: 293m 2008: 322.5m 2007: 338.7m 2006: 321.8m 2005: 307.7m 2004: 301.4m 2003: 293.5m 2002: 287.7m 2001: 262.7m 2000: 253.2m 1999: 327m