The Navy needs a 180-degree pivot: Embracing autonomy and AI for maritime dominance

The unmanned surface vessel Mariner transits the Pacific Ocean during Integrated Battle Problem (IBP) 23.2, Sep. 7, 2023. IBP 23.2 is a Pacific Fleet exercise to test, develop and evaluate the integration of unmanned platforms into fleet operations to create warfighting advantages. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jesse Monford)

The United States Navy stands at a critical juncture, and as the global maritime landscape evolves, so too must our approach to maintaining naval supremacy. As it stands now, the navy is incapable of being active in three simultaneous theaters, lacks the depth in munitions, ships, and personnel for sustained combat operations, and struggles to produce the necessary warships, using outdated concepts from World War II and the Cold War.

Which is to say, almost every part of the system is flawed. To address these challenges, the Navy must pivot away from large, costly platforms and embrace mass production and customizability. The service’s guiding philosophy should focus on autonomous systems, AI, cyber, electronic warfare, and distributed lethality, and include a cultural shift toward viewing software programmers as key partners for sailors.

Unmanned surface and subsurface ships are at a similar development stage as unmanned aircraft were a decade ago. However, the maturity curve and adoption of drone ships will proceed much more rapidly than it has for comparable aircraft. This is due to two simple reasons: AI’s rapid development is providing a springboard that aerial drones a decade ago did not have, and sea drone production will benefit from the lessons learned from aerial drones.

While manned vessels will never fully go away, the Navy should pivot away from its long held 355 ship target — which is proving unrealistic from a production standpoint anyway — and instead plan for tens of thousands of mostly smaller and relatively autonomous vessels, many of which will be tailored, specialized platforms for specific mission sets. With the White House announcing a wholesale overhaul of shipbuilding, this new direction will ensure that the United States become the global leaders for producing these new ships of the future, rather than investing in rebuilding the shipyards of the past.

The Navy must also miniaturize its surface fleet. Swarms of smaller, modular vessels like patrol boats and gunboats should be deployed near coastlines, offering a deterrent and fast-response force without a major shipyard overhaul. These ships are cheaper to produce and deploy, particularly in contested or crowded areas. Thousands of drones, like the Orca, a large autonomous submarine designed for intelligence and mine hunting currently under development, could provide a persistent presence in contested waters.

In addition, the era of manned Naval aircraft should end. Manned aircraft necessitate large aircraft carriers, which in turn require other ships for protection. Moving away from large ships to smaller, autonomous vessels is crucial. This shift will allow the Navy to leverage massive fleets of small and autonomous surface and subsurface drones, acting as force multipliers for surveillance, reconnaissance, and logistics support.

Cancel F/A-XX, the Navy’s future sixth-generation air superiority fighter and invest that money into unmanned systems. Large numbers of aerial drones can enhance naval operations with intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities, extending the Navy’s eyes and ears without endangering its manned sea vessels. Combat operations in the Middle East and Europe show that swarming drones, specialized drones, and cheap, attritable drones that function as munitions dramatically reshape the battlefield. While longer ranges will require larger unmanned systems due to weight and power, systems designed to operate without a pilot will still be smaller than manned fighters.

The current Navy continues to be locked in a mindset of scarcity. If the manufacturing base is mobilized and money is provided, the US Navy should set its sights on millions of drones per year, which over time will become larger and more sophisticated: The current manned aircraft fleet will not disappear overnight, but instead over 10 to 15 years as they age out.

Similar to the ships, the production of drones at scale is much simpler than hand building Joint Strike Fighters, and challenging industry to produce them by the millions is possible. If we could produce over 300,000 aircraft during World War II, we should be able to mass produce a million drones today. What is certain, is that if we do not try, then we will not succeed.

The Navy’s 180-degree pivot towards mass production, customization, and the integration of autonomous systems and AI is essential if the US is to maintain maritime dominance. By embracing these changes, the Navy can effectively counter emerging threats and ensure the free flow of goods and resources.

Failing to fix our broken Navy is nonnegotiable. Fortunately, the change that is needed is affordable, and achievable. It is up to the Congress, which has the constitutional duty to “provide and maintain a Navy,” to supply the funding, flexibility, and moral support needed to make this fix.

Retired US Army Maj. Gen. John G. Ferrari is a senior nonresident fellow at AEI. Ferrari previously served as a director of program analysis and evaluation for the service.