Ulta Beauty Admits Rocky Road Ahead Amid Consumer Uncertainty

THE WHAT? Ulta Beauty has cut its full-year guidance for 2025, citing consumer uncertainty, escalating competition, and internal missteps within its operations. New CEO Kecia Steelman has deemed the year a “transition,” signaling planned investments to reposition the beauty retailer for long-term growth

THE DETAILS 

• Ulta forecasts comparable sales to be flat to up 1% in 2025, falling short of analysts’ expectations for 1.2% growth.
• Full-year earnings are projected between US$22.50 and US$22.90 per share, below Wall Street’s US$23.47 consensus.
• Steelman, who replaced long-time CEO Dave Kimbell in January, acknowledged the brand lost market share for the first time in 2024 and faces stiff competition from both specialty rivals like Sephora and mass retailers entering the beauty space.
• In the fiscal fourth quarter, Ulta beat earnings and revenue estimates thanks to a higher average ticket size, yet saw fewer overall transactions.
• The retailer is committing to boosting its in-store experience and addressing operational hurdles, including fulfillment missteps and weak product execution, to regain momentum.

THE WHY? Ulta’s uneven performance highlights the tightening race to capture a growing but fragmented consumer group within cosmetics and personal care. As mass merchants and online platforms double down on beauty offerings, Ulta must revitalize store experiences and overhaul logistics to safeguard its slice of this highly competitive market

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