Trucking goes to Vegas, and driverless technologies run the table

Trucking goes to Vegas, and driverless technologies run the table

This week I went to Manifest in Las Vegas to cover truck technology. The conference didn’t disappoint: Representatives from Torc Robotics, Outrider, Bot Auto and other key players in the industry were among over 6,000 participants. Below are some of my initial thoughts. 

FreightLiner shows off kitted Cascadia and fleet support

One conversation I had at the conference was with an analyst at Freightliner, who talked about the company’s Detroit Assurance safety technology and showcased the recently released fifth-generation Cascadia, which incorporates a suite of added safety features. A few feet from its kitted-out Cascadia was a fourth-generation version equipped with Torc Robotics’ autonomous sensors. 

Freightliner, like other large OEMs, realized it was a good idea to help fleets boost efficiency and has software solutions to help customers optimize operations. It was an interesting discussion, and for customers with large private fleets, Freightliner’s tech suite is helping answer questions about route and fuel efficiency, driver behavior, and even topics related to their internal truckload optimization.

Autonomous fleets and trucking

I also attended two autonomous panels, with a large truckload carrier that discussed the potential impacts of autonomous commercialization. 2025 and 2027 are expected to be the two big years in the autonomous trucking space, but for regular fleets, there does not appear to be as much enthusiasm. One panelist mentioned having heard similar things in 2017 and 2018, but recent advancements have started to change the conversation.

Currently, the regulatory environment permits autonomous trucks, as laws don’t explicitly state what they can’t do. As long as it fits within the existing legal framework, they can operate. Based on conversations at the event, Texas and California appear to be competing for the title of autonomous trucking leader. If you ask the autonomous trucking companies themselves, Texas may be the winner, with favorable regulatory and freight opportunities as fleets test out commercialization. The Dallas-to-Houston lane was mentioned as a target for autonomous loads.

For large trucking fleets, other questions, like the cost per mile of an autonomous truck versus one with a human driver, are expected to ramp up as these AV companies launch commercial driverless pilots. Other questions involve how driverless trucks interact at pickup and delivery locations, with some companies suggesting drivers drop loads off at terminals then the autonomous truck runs to the next node. It’s still in the early stages before the driverless trucks can operate point to point, as a crowded yard is much more active than a highway or interstate.

Widespread adoption may come sooner rather than later

I personally believe that adoption will come faster than trucking executives are willing to admit – partly because the current trucking business model requires a steady stream of new drivers, and an autonomous truck may reach breakeven to the cost of a driver. It may also become cheaper when you factor in the costs of hiring a replacement driver, something most large for-hire TL carriers deal with when their turnover rates can be 95% to 100%. It’s a delicate balancing act for trucking execs, as the first carrier to aggressively work on replacing its driver fleet may face pushback from drivers themselves. That’s a problem when large TL carriers can spend tens of millions of dollars each year recruiting and hiring for their existing fleets.

Based on conversations at the event,  commercialization for autonomous fleets appears to be focused on limited lane pairings, with Torc Robotics opening a terminal in Dallas that is planned to pioneer Texas origin lanes like Dallas to Houston. Other panelists noted that the AV rollout will not be universal, and may focus on limited use cases like yard and terminal operations. Terminal tractors or yard dogs are an attractive option as companies like Outrider and Forterra develop commercial offerings, helping resolve trucking pain points like issues surrounding trailer utilization and preload/drop-and-hook operations.

One last observation: There were very few truckload carrier booths. The event draws more supply chain technology leaders and large shippers, with a smattering of freight brokers, load board providers and fraud prevention companies. 

ATRI reveals its 2025 top trucking bottlenecks

On Wednesday, the American Transportation Research Institute released its annual list of the top 100 truck bottlenecks in the U.S. The 14th annual list ranked the interchange of Interstate 95 and State Route 4 in Fort Lee, New Jersey, as the most congested freight bottleneck in the country. 

ATRI President and COO Rebecca Brewster said in the release, “Delays inflicted on truckers by congestion are the equivalent of 436,000 drivers sitting idle for an entire year. These metrics are getting worse, but the good news is that states do not need to accept the status quo.” Brewster cited Illinois as one example. The state was once home to the top bottleneck in the country, but following a sustained effort to expand capacity, the Jane Byrne Interchange in Chicago is not even in the top 10.

Compared to 2024, the ATRI analysis found that traffic conditions continue to deteriorate from recent years, with instances like work zones from increased infrastructure investment being highlighted. Average rush hour truck speed fell 3% year over year to 34.2 mph. Among the 10 most congested locations, average rush-hour truck speed was 29.7 mph.

The report noted that the delays are wasting more fuel, estimating that trucks burned 6.4 billion gallons of diesel fuel, producing more than 65 million metric tons of additional carbon emissions, when stuck in traffic jams. 

SONAR spotlight: Surge in daily dry van spot rates snaps seasonal losing streak 

Summary: The seasonal decline in dry van spot market rates was disrupted in the past week by a surge in daily spot rate movements. The SONAR National Truckload Index 7-Day Average rebounded to $2.37 all in after falling 4 cents in weekend activity on Saturday. The NTID, which is the daily recorded all-in dry van rate and feeds the NTI average, surged from $2.23 on Saturday to $2.66, a gain of 43 cents in approximately 48 hours. 

While the dry van segment saw a temporary reprieve from spot rate declines, the past week saw continued declines in the reefer and flatbed segments. Reefer all-in spot rates fell 7 cents per mile w/w from $2.71 on Feb. 3 to $2.64, while flatbed all-in spot rates lost 11 cents per mile w/w from $2.69 to $2.58

The Routing Guide: Links from around the web

Preliminary Class 8 Net Orders Step Back in January (ACT Research)

Top carriers slash spending to focus on pricing power (Fleet Owner)

In 3 months, Jack Cooper went from discussing new funding to closing its doors (FreightWaves)

CVSA’s out-of-service criteria: New for 2025 (Commercial Carrier Journal)

Trucking capacity oversupply persists, CH Robinson says (Trucking Dive)
Court delays independent contractor rule lawsuit as Trump administration takes over Department of Labor (Land Line)

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