Opinion: A Trump Tweet Can Cripple Markets, Ignite Wars and Reshape History

It begins with 280 characters. On 15 March 2025, Donald Trump declares a 20 percent tariff on Mexican and Canadian oil. What follows is not just a market shock but the unraveling of the global order. Within months, the U.S. faces financial collapse, geopolitical turmoil and an economic freefall unseen since the Great Depression. This is the price of America First. this projection piece by Michel Santi highlights how one impulsive tweet has the potential to plunge the world into chaos — from market crashes to diplomatic crises, this story aims to showcase how Trump’s digital outbursts remain a force of global disruption.

Trump Tweet and the Initial Reaction (15 March 2025)

At precisely 8:43 in the morning of 15 March 2025, Americans are greeted by another tweet from Donald Trump — as brief as it is devastating, its sentiment hit the country like an earthquake:

“America First! 20 percent tax on Mexican and Canadian oil, immediately. No more energy dependence,” it says.

This is no ordinary slogan, the “tax” President Trump is referring to is a direct economic attack. Mexico and Canada provide 30 percent of America’s oil. Cutting off this vital source threatens the economy. This sets off a chain of events with immediate panic in the markets. News channels go live and experts panic. Traders, eyes glued to the screens, see prices soar. Brent jumps from USD 100 to USD 130 in 48 hours. A shortage is feared in an already tight market. It is a domino effect that is felt immediately. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) forecasts 7 percent inflation. The Fed tries to react. At 10:30 P.M., Jerome Powell announces a rate hike to 6 percent in May, to curb inflation without stalling growth.

Financial Chaos (17 March, 2025)

The fallout sets in by 17 March and it is financial chaos as the stock market faces an unprecedented crash: easy money is over. The S&P 500 plunges 8 percent in a day, from 6,050 to 5,565 points, due to automatic selling. The GAFAM giants collapse: -20 percent in five days. Apple stocks go from USD 200 to USD 160, Amazon stocks plunge from USD 180 to USD 144 resulting in a loss of USD 1.5 trillion. There is general sense of capitulation in the air and simultaneously the word “capitulation” is on everyone’s lips. Trading platforms are saturated, sell orders explode. The crypto market trembles. Bitcoin, falls from USD 110,000 to USD 80,000 on March 18 as speculators sell in panic. This drop heralds more serious problems.

Crypto Crisis and Flaws in the System (March 20, 2025)

The domino effect continues and by 20 March, the crisis spreads reaching cryptocurrencies. Binance announces: “Withdrawals suspended for security.” Forums are inflamed, #CryptoCrash and #BinanceScam go viral. Bitcoin collapses to USD 50,000, losing USD 200 billion. The domino effect is relentless: Coinbase suspends operations, Kraken implodes. The crypto sector — once a symbol of financial freedom — collapses. The risky loans of American banks that are linked to crypto are also called into question. It is akin to the collapse of a house of cards. The flaws in the system emerge and this fragility reveals the weaknesses of banks, weakened by Trump’s deregulation. A major financial crisis looms, threatening the global economy.

The System Cracks (March 25, 2025)

The Breaking point comes on 25 March as the system cracks. There is a massive devaluation of “toxic assets”. On 25 March, the Bank of America — who has been forced to expose USD 150 billion of the USD 800 billion in risky loans, announces a significant devaluation.

This concerns:

• Mortgage loans (USD 50 billion): 15 percent of households are struggling to pay, with rates heading to 7.5 percent.
• Loans to tech companies (USD 60 billion): The fall of the GAFAM makes these loans useless.
• Crypto exposure (USD 40 billion): The USD 10 billion invested in Binance is now worth only USD 2 billion after the suspension of withdrawals.

Immediate repercussions continue as panic sets in on 25 March 25 to 26 March. Bank of America’s announcement triggers a run. On March 25, lines form in front of banks, online withdrawals explode and more than USD 50 billion is withdrawn in just 48 hours. The bank’s failure is feared. This leads to an emergency intervention as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) unlocks USD 300 billion to reassure customers, guaranteeing accounts up to USD 250,000. But this only covers a portion of the estimated USD 1.2 trillion in losses, fueling the panic.

The chain of events forms a vicious spiral as the domino effect strikes the markets. Bank stocks collapse: Bank of America loses 30 percent on 25 March 25, dragging down Wells Fargo and Citigroup. The next day on 26 March, the S&P 500 falls below 5,400 points. Has Trump’s deregulation created a financial bomb? This episode is a turning point. The extent of the “toxic assets” hidden in the US banking system is uncovered. Experts speak of a “Minsky Moment”: a breaking point where excessive debt causes financial collapses. The bubbles (tech, crypto, real estate) burst, threatening the global economy.

Geopolitical and Economic Contagion (April-June 2025)

As chaos spreads, China spots an opportunity. Under pressure from Trump’s tariffs, China intensifies its military exercises near Taiwan, seeing a chance to assert its power. The global economy enters a period of extreme instability.

April 1: Ukraine Abandoned

On 1 April, Trump cuts military aid to Ukraine with a tweet: “Europe pays or loses.” Without support, Ukraine weakens, and Russia occupies 30 percent of the country by June. Cereal exports fall by 20 percent, wheat rises to USD 450 per ton, and European gas to EUR 70 per MW/h. The EU enters a recession, with GDP declining by 3 percent in 2025.

April 10-15: Trade War with China

From 10 April to 15, Trump imposes 50 percent tariffs on Chinese products, accusing Beijing of “stealing American technology.” China retaliates on 15 April with a naval blockade around Taiwan, reducing TSMC’s semiconductor exports by 40 percent. The Nasdaq plunges 30 percent to 12,000 points, TSMC loses 50 percent of its value, and global auto production falls by 20 percent due to a chip shortage.

April 20-25: Military Escalation in the Middle East

Between April 20 and 25, Trump supports an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Iran retaliates by attacking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent to USD 145 per barrel. Oil-importing countries (Japan, India, EU) suffer and global markets panic.

The Collapse of the United States (July-September 2025)

The fall accelerates and by July there is a real estate crash. That same month, the United States’ 10-year Treasury yields reach 5.5 percent, pushing mortgage rates to 7.5 percent. Defaults explode, with 15 percent of households behind on payments. Real estate prices fall by 20 percent (from an average of USD 400,000 to USD 320,000). There are 1.5 million foreclosures.

August: Widespread Recession

In August, US inflation exceeds 8 percent. Consumption falls by 12 percent. Companies lay off workers, and unemployment rises from 4 percent to 8 percent (resulting in 12 million unemployed). US GDP declines by 5 percent, and 40,000 SMEs go bankrupt each month. On August 10, Wells Fargo announces a USD 100 billion loss, but Trump refuses any aid saying, “No socialism!”. The Federal Reserve (Fed) injects USD 1 trillion, weakening the dollar (EUR/USD at 1.35).

September: Systemic Banking Crisis

In September, banking losses in the US reach USD 1.2 trillion. Citigroup teeters on the brink of bankruptcy. The S&P 500 falls to 4,000 points (-33 percent since March), and Bitcoin collapses to USD 30,000.

Global Repercussions (July-December 2025)

The crisis spreads to Europe and from July to September, gas prices reach EUR 90 per MWh, and European exports to the US fall by 25 percent. EU GDP declines by 7 percent, Germany enters a recession (-6 percent), and the French CAC 40 falls to 4,000 points (-45 percent). Protests erupt in France, where inflation reaches 10 percent.

Asia Under Pressure

Between July and October, Chinese growth stagnates (+1 percent GDP) due to tariffs and the Taiwan blockade. Japan — hit by oil prices — sees its economy decline by 5 percent. The Nikkei and Hang Seng indices lose 35 percent, or USD 6 trillion. This also causes the stagnated growth of emerging countries. The rise in US rates to 6 percent causes defaults: Argentina defaults on USD 80 billion in July, and Turkey on USD 120 billion in September. The Mexican Peso devalues by 40 percent.

Psychological Damage (July-December 2025)

The psychological damage starts and fear sets in. On 1 July, Trump tweets: “The weak fall, the strong survive — this is America!” Panic sets in: US consumption falls by 18 percent, and 60 percent of households stop investing. The VIX index breaks the 60 level. From August to December, Trump isolates himself even more. He threatens to leave the UN on August 15, destroying global confidence. Companies reduce their investments by 20 percent, banks freeze loans, and chaos amplifies.

Final Consequences (October-December 2025)

The “apocalypse” is on its way and the United States is in free fall. Before the invasion of Taiwan, the S&P 500 falls to 3,500 points (-42 percent), and Bitcoin collapses to USD 15,000 (-86 percent). US GDP declines by 9 percent, and unemployment reaches 12 percent (18 million unemployed). Riots break out in 15 cities: looting in Detroit on October 5, clashes in Los Angeles on October 12. Pro-Trump militias patrol, adding to the instability.

Then, China proceeds on its invasion of Taiwan. On October 20, after months of tension, China launches a military operation against Taiwan, citing “reunification.” The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) cuts internet cables, strikes military bases, and establishes a beachhead on the west coast, despite strong resistance (over 10,000 dead).

• Markets: Nasdaq at 9,600 points (-20 percent), S&P 500 at 3,200 points, gold at USD 3,000/ounce.
• Chip Shortage: TSMC stops exports, auto production -40 percent, Apple and Nvidia -30 percent revenue, electronics prices double.

The geopolitical response is swift and Trump tweets: “China steals Taiwan while Biden sleeps!” He refuses any military intervention (“The US won’t pay”), imposes a total embargo on China, and declares a state of emergency on November 15, accusing the Fed, China, and “Democratic traitors.” The dollar falls (EUR/USD at 1.55), and inflation reaches 10 percent. Japan and South Korea, terrified, see the Nikkei index fall to 15,000 points (-40 percent). The EU, already in recession (-7 percent), can do nothing in the face of gas prices reaching EUR 100 per MWh.

The world is in ruins as global GDP falls by 7 percent, stock markets lose 65 percent of their value (USD 45 trillion), and USD 18 trillion in debt defaults. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates the number of people suffering from famine at 90 million. Iran blocks the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Brent oil soars to USD 160 per barrel. The US dollar represents only 45 percent of global reserves, while the Chinese yuan reaches 15 percent.

Overwhelmed, Trump blames his enemies on December 20: “We are in an economic war, and I will win!” Xi Jinping celebrates a “historical necessity,” despite a Chinese economy growing by only +0.5 percent. December 2025 ushers in a new legacy of chaos for the Trump administration. Trump becomes the symbol of the chaos he has created, validating economist Hyman Minsky’s theory on the fragility of the financial system.

The European Union to the Rescue (January 2026 – December 2027)

The next two years sees hope as the European Union comes to the rescue.

January-March 2026: Facing the Chaos

The world is in ruins: -7 percent global GDP, USD 45 trillion lost in markets, USD 18 trillion in defaulted debt. The US is paralyzed, China is wavering (+0.5 percent GDP), but the EU (-7 percent) holds firm, with a stable currency (EUR/USD 1.55). On January 5, France and Germany (Angela Merkel is recalled) launch the Global Renaissance Plan (GRP) in Pau: EUR 2 trillion to stabilize the economy, financed by eurobonds and taxes on tech giants.

• February: Gas returns to EUR 60 per MWh (agreement with Russia), and Brent to USD 120 per barrel (mediation with Iran). EUR 500 billion invested in chip production (TSMC in Poland and Germany).
• March: EUR 300 billion in humanitarian aid, reducing the number of people suffering from famine to 50 million (Elon Musk leaves his US roles and requests to coordinate humanitarian aid, with Thierry Breton).

April-June 2026: Mediation and Rebound

• April: Ceasefire between China and Taiwan (April 15), and special status for Taiwan. Trump accepts EUR 500 billion in EU loans, lifts tariffs, and disarms his militias.
• May: Restructuring of USD 18 trillion in debt, the French CAC 40 reaches 5,000 points, and the US S&P 500 reaches 4,000 points. Investments in green infrastructure (EUR 1.5 trillion, 5 million jobs), and the EU GDP improves to -2 percent.
• June: Peace agreement between India and Pakistan, and wheat price returns to USD 350 per ton.

July-December 2026: The EU as Economic Leader

• July: The euro is used in 60 percent of global transactions.
• September: Signing of the Global Stability Pact (GSP), and global GDP recovers to -3 percent.
• December: Brent returns to USD 100 per barrel, the S&P 500 to 4,500 points, and Bitcoin to USD 25,000. 

January-December 2027: The Indispensable EU

• January: Global GDP jumps to +1 percent, and the EU’s to +2 percent. A Global European Council (GEC) is convened in Paris.
• March: Trump is marginalised (his impeachment process fails). He takes refuge in Las Vegas, sinking into oblivion. A Universal Prosperity Pact is established by Europe.

After the “Minsky Moment” of 2025, the EU emerges in 2027 with EUR 5 trillion invested to stabilize the economy and mediate conflicts. It becomes the benchmark, with a dominant euro, thriving technology, and a harmonious societal model, standing in contrast to a divided United States and a weakened China.

This opinion piece was written by Michel Santi.

For more on the author, Michel Santi, visit his website here: michelsanti.fr

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