From rebuilding the armed forces to selling drones, how Turkey can enhance Syria’s defense

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa (L) shake hands as they hold a joint press conference after their meeting at Presidential Complex in Ankara, Turkiye on February 4, 2025. (Photo by Mehmet Ali Ozcan/Anadolu via Getty Images)

BEIRUT —  As the new administration in Syria takes control, experts are looking at the role Ankara may play to help boost the Syrian defense sector — starting with rebuilding the armed forces which disassembled after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in December.

And if Turkey and Syria truly strengthen their ties, analysts say, expect Syria to emerge as a market for Turkish-made weapons and security systems.

Syrian transitional president Ahmad Al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Feb. 4, during which the two men announced the relationship between the two nations would be elevating to a “strategic level.” More concretely, Reuters reported the two men also discussed creating a defense pact that would could include establishing Turkish military bases inside Syria.

Despite nothing being signed yet, four analysts who spoke to Breaking Defense consider the potential defense pact to be major sign of how relations between the two countries have warmed since the fall of Assad, and how Turkey is looking to expand its influence in the region.

“Turkey is a key actor in Syria, with significant military capacity, which will be essential in rebuilding the Syrian Army,” Murat Yesiltas, director of Security Studies at the Turkish think tank SETA Foundation, told Breaking Defense. “Additionally, Turkey has played a diplomatic role in shaping the post-December 8 process, laying the groundwork to support Syria’s territorial integrity and garner regional backing for the new government.”

He added that such an agreement would likely formalize Turkey’s military presence in Syria and enhance cooperation in the reconstruction of the Syrian army and counterterrorism efforts.

Ali Bakir, a professor at Qatar University and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, told Breaking Defense that such a pact would benefit from focusing on on creating, training, and equipping a professional Syrian army according to NATO standards.

“The primary goal is to accelerate stabilization efforts in Syria and establish a capable, well-equipped military force that can ensure long-term security and stability. Such a development would not only assist the new Syrian administration in securing the country but also enable rapid control over all Syrian territories,” he said.

Bakir added that a strong Syrian army will play a major role in combating “cross-border organized crime, smuggling of drugs or weapons, and other regional threats. It would safeguard the security and integrity of Syria’s borders while preserving the nation’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”

Syrian armed forces have been shattered after nearly 14 years of combat with rebels, and Assad’s regime was only able to survive as long as it did with the support of Russian and Iranian armed forces, who were on ground in Syria.

Unlike his colleagues, Serhat Süha Çubukçuoğlu, an expert at Trends Research & Advisory in Abu Dhabi, doesn’t expect the pact to be signed in the short term, calling it a “far-flung goal for now” as “Al-Sharaa is wary of putting all the eggs in the same basket, instead trying to maximize his interests by playing all sides, from Saudis to the UAE and the US to the Israelis.”

Nevertheless, he acknowledged that should Turkey get basing rights in Syria, a base near Homs could give Turkey a strategic advantage to balance Israel’s growing clout in the region and act as a deterrent against further escalation in Syria.

“The proposed agreement includes bases in central desert region (Badiyah), with key installations at Palmyra and T4 (Althias) airbase, that could serve as outposts for SIGINT-ELINT and forward deployments of UAVs for surveillance missions. It would also open a new front against the YPG-PKK, which Ankara is determined to dismantle,” he stated.

A ‘Strategic Level’ Partnership

While the defense pact may be the more important part of the Feb. 4 meeting, the experts also said not to dismiss the power of the statement that the relationship could hit a “strategic” level.

“The elevation of relations between the two countries to a ‘strategic level’ in the defense and security sector signifies a high degree of interoperability, interdependence, information sharing, cooperation, and coordination on matters pertaining to national security, as well as threats to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both nations,” Bakir said.

He added that Turkey, with its extensive experience in institution-building, is well-positioned to play a pivotal role in this partnership.

“Given that Syria’s institutions, army, and internal security forces need to be rebuilt from the ground up, it will require significant time and effort for these entities to reach their full potential. During this transitional phase, Turkey can provide critical support in terms of expertise, training, and resources, helping Syria establish a robust and modern defense infrastructure,” Bakir said.

Turkish defense expert Barin Kayaoglu compared what Turkey may seek to do with what it has been doing in Somalia, where Turkish officials have been working to rebuild state institutions and the military. 

“This includes leveraging Syria as a strategic asset in countering Israel’s assertive posture, responding to potential U.S. troop withdrawals, and ensuring Syria’s political transition aligns with Turkey’s interests,” Çubukçuoğlu told Breaking Defense. “Key objectives involve dismantling the YPG-PKK, securing a maritime border agreement, and integrating Syrian military priorities with Turkey’s regional strategy. Additionally, it strengthens Turkey’s position in the Eastern Mediterranean, including its approach to Cyprus via air and naval bases on the island.”

Syria: A Turkish Defense Customer?

The goal of any agreements between Turkey and Syria are, of course, geopolitical. But for Turkey’s domestic defense industry, there would be a major benefit.

Experts agree that Syria is expected to become a customer for Turkish defense platforms, whether in the short term or in the long term, to rebuild its armed forces that were shattered in the national conflict as well as its armament warehouses that were targeted by Israel.

“Syria’s military infrastructure has been severely damaged by Israeli strikes, both during the war and in the aftermath of December 8. As a result, the new Syrian Army will need to be built from the ground up, with its force structure designed accordingly. This will require the development of land, naval, and air capabilities,” Yesiltas told Breaking Defense. 

Bakir added: “It is highly probable that the new Syrian administration will look to import Turkish defense equipment and technology, potentially even aspiring to adopt the Turkish model for building an indigenous defense industry. Syria possesses significant human capital and resources, and with proper stabilization, guidance, and support, it could leverage these assets to develop its own defense sector over time. In doing so, Syria might not only expand the reach of the Turkish defense market but also establish its own unique model tailored to its specific needs and capabilities.”

He noted that in the short term Syria will likely focus on acquiring essential defense systems to rebuild its military and internal security infrastructure.

“Key areas of demand may include Armored Vehicles and Artillery Systems, Drone Technology (UAVs), and Air Defense Systems. While adopting the Turkish model offers a promising pathway for Syria’s defense development, building a fully independent and capable industry will require substantial investment, time, and unwavering commitment,” he said. “In the interim, collaboration with Turkey can provide the necessary foundation for Syria’s defense modernization efforts while fostering long-term strategic partnership between the two nations.”

Çubukçuoğlu agreed that Syria’s priority will be to acquire light arms and train its armed forces. 

“Turkey can provide air defense coverage, electronic warfare-early warning-intelligence solutions for Syria either through partnership or by installing such systems and training the Syria army to operate them. The priority would be to re-build the Syrian army, since the navy and air force require much higher know-how and differentiated skill sets built over a longer period,” he added. 

However, Kayaoglu doesn’t expect Syria to go as far as procuring high-end Turkish products in the foreseeable future. 

“But maybe Türkiye could convince the United States to allow it to hand over its oldest F-16s to Syria *if* Washington and Damascus could patch things up in return for Israel agreeing to normalize ties with Syria,” he told Breaking Defense.