Could the UK regain its position as Champagne’s largest export market?

With Champagne consumption proving resilient in the UK in 2024, might it overtake the US to become Champagne’s largest export market? That’s a possible outcome according to chairman of the UK’s Champagne Shippers’ Association – and managing director of Pol Roger Portfolio – James Simpson MW. At the start of this year, during a discussion with db on Champagne sales, he said “I suspect the UK might overtake the America as the number one export market.” Continuing he said, “The UK has been amazingly resilient,” commenting on the strength of Champagne sales in retail in the latter half of last year, as well as the continuation of consumption in restaurants, despite significant price inflation as the on-trade deals with rising costs. Acknowledging that price promotions in supermarkets have played a significant part in keeping the Brits buying Champagne, particularly during the festive period, he said that the sales technique “gets people drinking Champagne again.” Indeed, it has been suggested that the volumes for year-end discount-fuelled Champagne sales in the UK may have come from stock diverted from the US, which has suffered more in the past year due to uncertainty in an election year. commenting further on the UK market, Simpson said that volume shipments to the nation may be down between 7-9% in 2024 (from 25.5m bottles in 2023), before stating, “But 23 million bottles is still quite a lot of decent booze.” He noted that the older generation – “who have paid off their mortgages” – are proving an important source of Champagne sales, noting the strong performance for the product at merchants Berry Bros & Rudd and The Wine Society. “There’s a sense,” he said about last year, “That while Rome burns, everyone carries on drinking Champagne.” Looking ahead to this year, he said that Champagne brand owners, who passed on price increases at the start of 2024 – hindering sales – were unlikely to be putting up prices now. “Prices of Champagne will be stable this year, because I can’t see anyone being brand enough to put prices up,” he said. As a result, he sees this year being better for Champagne, and 2024 as a low point. “Hopefully Champagne won’t appear as expesnive as inflation goes up and Champagnes prices don’t, and the Champagne brand is still phenomenally strong,” he concluded. However, in January this year, when db asked head of the Union des Maisons de Champagne (UMC), David Chatillon, whether he believed shipments to the UK might surpass those to the US in 2024, he said that it was unlikely. Pointing out that the US market represented almost 27m bottles in 2023 (26.9m), it would have to fall a long way to dip below a UK total of around 23m in 2024 (based on a fall of around 10% on its 2023 figure of 25.5m). “I don’t think the UK will overtake the US in 2024, but I do think that the two markets will be closer,” he said. Continuing, he stressed the long-term strength of the US market. “Except for Covid, and this post-Covid period, the US [market for Champagne] has grown for 10 years.” He added, referring to shipments to the US at the start of 2024, which were down significantly, “The issue in the US has been the overstock, which is now behind us.” Also, shipments to the US last year may have been artificially bolstered at the year-end, as some producers, fearing the imposition of tariffs on French luxury goods under the newly-elected Trump Administration, shipped between 1-2m extra bottles to the market to ensure they would be in the nation before January. Although such tariffs have not been imposed on Champagne (and European wines and spirits), db has been told that the extra stock in the US has meant that re-orders at the start of this year have not been forthcoming. In the UK, however, the start to the year has been good in terms of Champagne orders, with db learning that the stock earmarked for Christmas and New Year consumption has sold through. This contrasts with the early 2024, when there was still stock in the UK market, as sales over the festive period were not as high as had been hoped for.

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