Recap of the IFM conference: 2024 fashion report – between deceptive stability and the beginnings of a new cycle

As we move further into 2025 and the impacts of 2024 recede, the fashion market appears to be in a state of deceptive stability. Beneath the surface, however, shifts are occurring: the precarious balance between physical and digital commerce is wavering, distribution channels are being reinvented, and consumer expectations are shaping a changing landscape. More than just a cyclical fluctuation, this period signals a redefinition of the industry’s rules, potentially ushering fashion into an era of lasting transformation. As Gildas Minvielle, Director of the Economic Observatory at the Institut Français de la Mode (IFM), states, "Behind these apparent stabilizations, profound transformations are underway."

What is at stake today goes beyond mere sales figures. Far from being a temporary phase, this period of adjustment could be the prelude to a structural overhaul, where the supply-and-demand paradigm is now centered around new rationalities: consumers seeking meaning, a market split between luxury and ultra-accessibility, and an industry caught between the imperatives of profitability and sustainability mandates. Thus, the key question is no longer whether fashion is stabilizing but rather the nature of this stability: is it a transitional plateau or a new equilibrium built on unprecedented dynamics?

The third edition of the annual fashion market report, led this Thursday, February 13, by Gildas Minvielle, Director of the Economic Observatory at the Institut Français de la Mode (IFM), shed light on this period of major upheaval—perhaps heralding new trajectories for the sector.

2024 market review: modest growth amid deep transformation

Behind the relative calm of the figures, a market reshaping is undeniably taking place. After a slow start to the year with a 2% decline in sales during the first half, the fashion market closed 2024 with a modest 0.5% growth in apparel sales. This seemingly positive outcome, however, conceals contrasting dynamics: the rise of pure players (or ultra fast-fashion?) continues to reshape the landscape. When factoring in Shein, Amazon, and Temu, the sector’s growth jumps from 0.1% to 1%, a clear signal that digital commerce is now setting the pace.

However, compared to the pre-pandemic era, the contraction remains significant at -5.5% relative to 2019. Behind these figures lies a profoundly reshaped retail landscape. Affordable chains like Kiabi and Gémo have emerged as the biggest winners, posting an 11% increase over the same period. Conversely, traditional retail channels are experiencing steep declines: hypermarkets and supermarkets have dropped by 28.9%, multi-brand independents by 18.3%, and specialized chains by 4%. This decline raises concerns about the adaptability of traditional models in the face of rapidly changing consumption habits.

Men's and women's apparel continue to evolve at different rates, highlighting a persistent structural imbalance. While women’s ready-to-wear saw a 2.3% increase, the men’s segment barely grew at 0.3%. Women's fashion benefits from greater diversity and faster responsiveness to trends, whereas men’s fashion remains defined by less frequent purchases and a strong preference for timeless pieces. However, this gap is drawing growing interest from retailers. A case in point is Galeries Lafayette, which has recently invested in expanding its men's fashion offering. Could this historically underexploited segment become a new engine of growth?

At the conference, Emmanuel Tisseyre, Chief Operating Officer (EMEA, APAC, LatAm) for luxury brands, lecturer at ESMOD, and INSEAD alumnus, highlighted a particularly insightful point: if men in the silver economy reduce their fashion consumption after retirement, it is not so much due to a lack of interest as to the absence of an offering truly tailored to them. Yet, they have the capital, the time, and an aesthetic sensibility that could make them a highly relevant and valuable market segment—one that the fashion industry could harness far more effectively.

Regional disparities add another layer of complexity. In the Paris region, dominant retailers differ significantly from those in the rest of the country: Décathlon, Zara, and Nike lead the market, while in other regions, Kiabi surpasses Zara for second place. Similarly, Lidl and Carrefour have a stronger presence in Parisian fashion retail compared to the regional strongholds of Gémo, La Halle, and Chausséa. These differences reflect not only varying commercial strategies but also discrepancies in purchasing power and consumer behavior.

E-Commerce and the domination of the Shein-Temu-Amazon trio

While 2024 was not marked by a dramatic shift, it reinforced a prevailing trend: the unstoppable rise of online commerce. E-commerce sales increased by 1.7% compared to 2023 and by 9.2% relative to 2019, bringing online fashion purchases to 23% of the total market (+1 percentage point year-on-year).

The Shein-Temu-Amazon trio epitomizes this transformation. These platforms account for 25% of online sales and 6% of the total market, illustrating a structural shift toward digital consumption, particularly among younger generations. In this new ecosystem, Amazon leads with a 26.3% market share, followed by Décathlon (21.4%) and Shein (19.9%). Vinted, driven by the rise of second-hand shopping, has also become a key player (19.2%), confirming that the search for meaning and budget-consciousness are now shaping purchasing behaviors.

For physical retailers, digital adaptation is progressing at a slower yet tangible pace: the share of e-commerce in their revenue has risen from 6% in 2019 to 10% in 2024. This evolution underscores the urgent need for traditional retailers to accelerate their omnichannel transformation or risk being sidelined.

Retail rankings: sportswear and supermarkets take the lead

2024 saw a reshuffling of consumer preferences among retail chains. Décathlon, embodying the ongoing enthusiasm for sportswear and athleisure, secured the top spot, followed by Kiabi and Zara. This trend underscores a shift toward clothing that balances style, comfort, and functionality. Nike and Adidas continue to benefit, solidifying their market dominance.

Another divergence in purchasing habits is emerging, this time within the grocery retail sector. In Île-de-France, Carrefour and Lidl have established themselves as the preferred retailers, while in other regions, only Leclerc manages to secure a spot among the 15 most frequented stores for clothing purchases.

Once again, territorial differences come into play: in Île-de-France, Uniqlo, C&A, and Armand Thierry stand out, whereas in other regions, La Halle, Gémo, and Chausséa maintain a strong presence. These choices reflect disparities in lifestyle and consumer preferences between urban and peri-urban areas.

2025: stagnation or new equilibria?

Projections for 2025 suggest a year of limited growth. According to IFM estimates, expected growth hovers around 0.7%, with a median scenario of +0.2% and a range between -2% and +2%. While the slowdown in inflation could support consumption, economic uncertainties and public deficit reduction efforts create an atmosphere of caution.

A survey conducted by IFM among retailers reflects this prudence: 74% anticipate stable prices, 20% foresee moderate increases (0 to 5%), and only 6% expect declines. This predicted stagnation could further benefit the most competitive segments, particularly second-hand platforms and budget retailers. As Gildas Minvielle pointed out, “behind these apparent stabilizations, profound transformations are underway.” Between the rise of digital, the growing fragility of traditional retailers, and shifting consumer behaviors, the fashion market finds itself at a quiet yet pivotal turning point. Will 2025 mark the emergence of a new cycle, or will it solidify the entrenchment of current trends?

The third edition of the IFM’s annual fashion market report has shed light on these questions and outlined possible future scenarios—insights that we will explore further in an upcoming article.