In slow season, tariffs a following wind for trans-Pacific container rates

Importers may have won a reprieve — however temporary — from tariffs on the United States’ largest trading partners, but the threat of new levies is still helping keep container rates elevated on trans-Pacific ocean lanes.

Rates for Asia-U.S. West Coast containers fell 3% to $4,763 per forty-foot equivalent unit in the latest Freightos Baltic Index for the week ending Feb. 14.

Asia-U.S. East Coast rates declined 4% to $6,398 per FEU.

The Trump administration this past week pulled back on threatened reciprocal tariffs, instead ordering federal agencies to develop comprehensive plans, due April 1, for such duties on countries with levies or other barriers to U.S. exports. That means reciprocal tariffs — or Trump’s threat of 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods — won’t be implemented until then.

“Some experts are hopeful that this runway will provide time for U.S. trading partners to lower their tariffs and avoid reciprocation,” wrote Judah Levine, head of research for Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO). “But the threat of these tariff increases continues to impact global trade both by accelerating the shift of U.S. sourcing away from targeted countries like China, and by pushing shippers to pull forward orders from those that could face tariff hikes soon, including Mexico.”

The sustained higher rates come during what is historically a slack shipping season following Lunar New Year, when factories in Asia shut down for several weeks. The time frame also signals the start of contract negotiations between carriers and shippers.

“This is going to be an interesting year. Rates are not reflective of [where] most believe they should land in the next four quarters,” said Derek Lossing, founder of e-commerce and transportation consultant Cirrus Global Advisors. “So, it’s a matter of who’s going to be able to sell their crystal ball better, the carriers or the shippers.” 

British investment bank HSBC in a research note said it expects only moderate fluctuations in Asia-U.S. ocean freight rates in the coming months. 

Asia-North Europe rates fell 7% to $3,162 per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean prices were off 2% to $4,448 per FEU from the previous week.

“In the absence of these tariff considerations, Asia-Europe and Mediterranean container rates are falling more significantly than on the trans-Pacific post-Lunar New Year as demand eases,” Levine wrote.

Asia-Europe rates have fallen nearly 45% since early January to about $3,000 per FEU, the lowest level since the start of the Red Sea crisis in early 2024. Daily rates to the Mediterranean are nearing the $4,000-per-FEU level, according to Levine.

“Carriers are increasing blanked [canceled] sailings and have announced March 1 General Rate Increases [GRIs] of about $1,000 per FEU to attempt and push rates back up on these lanes, though there is skepticism that the increases will succeed.”

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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