FedEx navigates tariff swings to modest profit gain

FedEx credited its Drive cost-cutting initiative and higher export volumes at the Express division with generating better-than-expected quarterly results during a period of tariff turmoil and is targeting another $1 billion in savings in the current fiscal year.

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) released fourth-quarter earnings late Tuesday as the company mourned the passing on Saturday of founder Fred Smith. The board of directors on Monday promoted Brad Martin to succeed Smith as chairman.

Revenues at FedEx inched up less than 1% year over year in the fourth quarter, ended May 31, to $22.2 billion, while adjusted operating income gained 8% to $2 billion. Revenue was $200 million ahead of Wall Street’s consensus. Diluted earnings per share of $6.07 beat analysts’ estimate of $5.85 per share.

The parcel and logistics giant said it achieved its two-year Drive goal of permanently eliminating $4 billion in structural costs compared to fiscal year 2023, including $2.2 billion last year. As part of the restructuring, FedEx has been implementing a workforce reduction of 2,000 persons in Europe, announced last June, which will lead to about $150 million in annual savings by fiscal year 2027, CEO Raj Subramaniam said. 

Increased U.S. and international export volume at FedEx Express and higher base yields at each transportation division also helped to boost profits. Express division revenue increased 1% to nearly $19 billion on 6% and 4.7% increases in domestic and international package volume, respectively.

Gains at FedEx Express were partially offset by higher purchased transportation and wage rates and the expiration of a major U.S. Postal Service contract last September. 

Revenue at FedEx Freight, the largest less-than-truckload carrier in the nation, fell 4% to $2.9 billion due to lower fuel surcharges, reduced weight per shipment, higher healthcare costs and increased wage rates, FedEx said. The primary challenge, however, is continued weakness in the industrial sector. Operating income was down 6%. The division made a $33 million gain on the sale of a terminal, which accounted for nearly a third of the earnings beat.

Year-over-year volume declines moderated sequentially, with average daily shipments down 1% in the fourth quarter compared to down 5% in the third quarter and down 8% in the second quarter. Average daily shipments actually increased 8.3% sequentially, representing the largest Q4 over Q3 since fiscal year 2021.  

FedEx is preparing to spin off Freight into a stand-alone company next year. 

Full-year revenue was nearly flat at $87.9 billion, while operating income inched down $100 million to $6.1 billion.

Capital spending for fiscal 2025 was $4.1 billion, down $1.1 billion or 22% from $5.2 billion the prior year. Capital spending as a percentage of revenue declined to 4.6%, the lowest level in FedEx history. FedEx plans to invest $4.5 billion this year, with a focus on network optimization, fleet and facility modernization, and automation. Chief Financial Officer John Dietrich said the company will reduce capital expenditures on aircraft to $1 billion this fiscal year and maintain that level for several years.

First-quarter guidance was mixed. FedEx estimated revenue would range from flat to up 2% in the first quarter. The call for earnings per share of $3.40 to $4 was slightly below analysts estimate. The loss of U.S. Postal Service business represents a $120 million headwind this quarter, but after that won’t be a factor in comparing quarterly results. Management said it can’t provide full-year guidance because of the uncertain trade environment.

Wall Street seemed disappointed that FedEx is on track for low operating profit in a quarter that usually produces the highest growth of the year. The company’s stock price was down 5% in the first hour of trading Wednesday.

With the Drive initiative substantially complete, most of the $1 billion in projected savings during the 2026 fiscal year will come from the consolidation of the Express and Ground networks, dubbed Network 2.0. The retirement last quarter of 12 cargo jets is also intended to help on the cost front.

Flexible air network mitigates tariff uncertainty

FedEx leveraged digital tools and its trade compliance expertise to help customers, whipsawed by fast-changing tariff policies, change import strategies. Some shippers postponed orders, while others sped them up to beat future tariff increases or shifted procurement to different countries, according to analysts.

Tariffs heavily impacted trans-Pacific volumes, resulting in flat international export volume. The China-U.S. trade lane represents about 2.5% of consolidated revenue and is the most profitable intercontinental lane. 

FedEx flexed the transportation network in line with new trade flows, said CEO Raj Subramaniam during the earnings presentation. 

The Tricolor redesign of the air network, which segregates overnight express and deferred daytime freight shipments, is already driving greater flexibility, efficiency and customer satisfaction. The new system was designed to improve asset utilization and cargo density, provide differentiated capability and attract premium international cargo traditionally booked on commercial airlines by logistics companies. 

FedEx, for example, reduced capacity out of Asia to the U.S. by more than 35% in the first week of May, when e-commerce volumes fell sharply in response to the U.S. cancellation of duty-free treatment for low-value shipments, according to the CEO. Beyond operating fewer flights with its own aircraft, FedEx reduced capacity purchases for low-priority shipments booked on commercial passenger aircraft by FedEx’s freight forwarding arm — the so-called White network. Demand picked up when the U.S. temporarily lowered tariffs on China and FedEx ended May with a net capacity reduction of about 20% compared to April. 

Management said it is redirecting capacity to other regions where demand is strong as it contracts flight activity in Asia. 

“The global demand environment remains volatile. We are staying close to our customers to help them plan and adapt as they navigate trade policy changes, and we are actively matching our capacity with demand as the environment evolves,” Subamaniam said. “What we have accomplished in May would not have been possible without the implementation of tricolor.”

Other changes to the air network have enabled FedEx to consolidate shipments from multiple origins in a centralized gateway. In April, FedEx introduced its first direct flight from Singapore to the U.S. to more efficiently capture demand from regional shippers of heavier, palletized cargo. 

FedEx generated higher revenue per pound in its global airfreight operation as a result of the Tricolor strategy, Chief Commercial Officer Brie Carere said. International air cargo revenue increased 5% in the quarter with a high profit margin. The focus on non-parcel air cargo, along with Europe and healthcare, is part of FedEx’s strategy to grow high-margin business and diversify revenue sources.

FedEx recently unveiled an AI tool to help users of its online shipment management system select the appropriate product classification code for tariffs, reducing errors, delays and extra work for clearing goods through Customs. The tool uses generative AI to help companies enter accurate details about their shipment.

In May, FedEx opened a new automated sorting facility in Brest, France, to provide more package delivery capacity for northern Brittany. It also announced plans to open two high-tech logistics hubs in the United Kingdom, consolidating five terminals into two to improve service and support future growth. The new hubs, anticipated to be operational by 2029, will each be able to sort 32,000 packs per hour, and process different types of deliveries for customers, including international freight and ecommerce shipments.

Click here for more FreightWaves/American Shipper stories by Eric Kulisch.

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