An ocean away: In Paris, European defense officials confront confounding ‘new period’ in security

French soldiers from the Operation Sentinel patrol on the Trocadero Esplanade near the Eiffel Tower in Paris, on April 15, 2024. (Photo by JULIEN DE ROSA / AFP) (Photo by JULIEN DE ROSA/AFP via Getty Images)

PARIS — “The strategic environment has undergone a major change,” a senior French defense official remarked solemnly to close out the intensive three-day Paris Defence & Strategy Forum, which saw senior European political and military figures gather to find their way through the new geopolitical forest last week.

The official, Gen. Vincent Giraud, read remarks that had been prepared for his boss, France’s Chief of Defense Staff Gen. Thierry Burkhard, who could not make the speech himself as he was engaged in talks with French political leaders about the situation in Ukraine and the future of security in Europe — topics that nonetheless dominated the Forum agenda.

Organized by the Defence Academy of the Military College (École Militaire), the Forum was opened by French Armed Forces Minister Sébatien Lecornu, who said this was “a new period which is very complicated to explain and difficult to quantify.”

“We are not at war, but we are not at peace,” he said, referring to Russia’s aggressive behavior across Europe. He also told attendees in the packed 580-seat auditorium that “rearmament is above all intellectual, ahead of weapons, percentages of gross domestic product, or billions of Euros.”

French Defence Minister Florence Parly (R) hands over to her successor Sebastien Lecornu (L) during a ceremony at L’Hotel de Brienne in Paris, on May 20, 2022. (Photo by GEOFFROY VAN DER HASSELT/AFP via Getty Images)

According to Lecornu the priority is “to think about what the Ukrainian army should be in the future. Return to the principle that the Ukrainian army remains the first guarantor of security, and that we will refuse any form of demilitarization of Ukraine.”

Beyond Ukraine and an ocean away from an American president who has threatened not to defend historical allies who do not “pay” enough for their own defense, Lecornu urged attendees to think about the future of the Atlantic alliance.

“What will the defense of NATO’s eastern border be like next year, in five years, in 10 years, in 15 years?” he queried. “If tomorrow the contributions of certain countries evolve downwards, how can we, Europeans, adequately execute NATO’s defense plans?”

European nations must “think in 360 degrees,” he said, to avoid being “shortsighted.”

“We see what is close to us and deal with threats one after the other, methodically. But it’s not because we’re very preoccupied by Ukraine and Russia that we should not talk about Iran, North Korean strategies nor, more globally, of what is happening in the Indo-Pacific region,” he said.

His Dutch counterpart, Ruben Brekelmans, gave the keynote speech, remarking, too, that “Europe stands at a crossroads.”

“The threat posed by Russia is only growing. The United States has made it clear that its support for Ukraine is no longer a given,” he said. “And Europe’s decades-long reliance on the US cannot be simply taken for granted anymore — instead it must be earned. Europe therefore needs to fortify its own security architecture.”

Like Lecornu, Brekelmans said Europe was in a “gray zone” conflict with Moscow already, with daily cyberattacks on hospitals, police and universities, espionage and preparations of sabotage, “with Russian ships mapping our wind parks and undersea internet cables,” and “Russian trolls flood the internet with lies and disinformation.”

“We may not be at war with Russia, but Russia is at war with us — a hybrid war,” he said, stressing that “we should be capable of defending ourselves in both a hybrid war and a kinetic one.”

With around 900 defense companies, Brekelmans said the Dutch defense industry is a substantial player in Europe and has doubled its turnover in the past three years, moving from €4.7 billion ($5.1 billion USD) in 2021 to €9.3 billion ($10.1 billion USD) in 2024, reaching the 2 percent of GDP required by NATO.

Brekelmans applauded “the fact that France is showing strong leadership together with the UK as we discuss what we could deliver in terms of safety guarantees for Ukraine,” adding that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “should not have to agree to a deal that would result in some sort of interbellum, with aggression constantly looming on the horizon. He needs to negotiate from a position of strength.”

The Dutch defense minister went on to remark that “Europe can be stronger than we sometimes think,” and “should not downplay our relevance in the current geopolitical reshuffle of power.”

“Europe can be a force to be reckoned with — economically, militarily, morally, culturally. Let’s not be too modest about that,” he stated, adding that the European Union has over 27 member states, each with different cultures and histories, “yet we all choose to go in the same direction: combined, we spent more on financial, military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine than the United States. And we have strong partners who join us in this direction, such as the UK and Norway.”

The Question Of F-35s And European Troops In Ukraine

In a press conference later, Breaking Defense asked him whether he was rethinking the kingdom’s commitment to the F-35 combat aircraft (the Netherlands has received 40 of the 52 it has ordered) in the light of rising European fears that the aircraft is far too dependent on US software updates, spare parts and maintenance support.

“I don’t think we should speculate on this,” he said, adding that the Royal Netherlands Air Force combat aircraft fleet was entirely constituted of F-35s given that its F-16s have all been gifted to Ukraine.

He said the Netherlands “wants to be part of the discussion” regarding the goal, the mandate and the security guarantees if European troops were to be sent on the ground in Ukraine. He said it should be a “coalition of the willing, like-minded countries” including non-European Union members such as the UK and Norway. But any Dutch participation “needs to be discussed in the (government) cabinet and then approved by parliament.”

One issue for the kingdom is the shortage of personnel in its land forces. “These must be bigger with heavier weapon systems and larger stocks,” he said.

He also implied that a new NATO spending target above 2 percent of GDP might be set at the NATO summit in The Hague in June.