The D Brief: Waltz, out?; New Army goals, cuts; Extremist groups, rising; Ukraine minerals deal; And a bit more.

Background: “In March, Waltz came under scrutiny after he put together a Signal chat and mistakenly included The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg, disclosing discussions with top national security officials about plans for a military strike on Houthi targets in Yemen,” Jennifer Jacobs and Kathryn Watson report. Publicly, President Trump had signaled his support for Waltz by calling him “a good man” who “learned a lesson.” More, here.

Welcome to this Thursday edition of The D Brief, a newsletter dedicated to developments affecting the future of U.S. national security, brought to you by Ben Watson and Bradley Peniston. Share your tips and feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 2003, President George W. Bush declared “mission accomplished” just 42 days after ordering the U.S. military to invade Iraq. Bush’s troops would stay at war in Iraq for the remainder of his 2,090 days in the White House. 

Around the Defense Department

President Trump’s Pentagon chief ordered reductions across the Army affecting “force structure,” “inefficient defense contracts,” and more. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s office announced the developing changes Wednesday evening in a four-page memo instructing Army Secretary Dan Driscoll “to implement a comprehensive transformation strategy, streamline [Army] force structure, eliminate wasteful spending, reform the acquisition process, and modernize inefficient defense contracts.” 

“To build a leaner, more lethal force, the Army must transform at an accelerated pace by divesting outdated, redundant, and inefficient programs, as well as restructuring headquarters and acquisition systems,” the secretary wrote in his memo. The changes are intended to help the service accomplish Trump’s goals and priorities, spanning “long-range precision fires” for the Pacific region, in particular, “air and missile defense including through the [developing] Golden Dome” project, as well as “cyber, electronic warfare, and counter-space capabilities,” said Hegseth. 

According to his memo, SecDef Hegseth wants:

• Drones “in every division by the end of 2026,” and counter-drone systems added to “maneuver platoons by 2026 and maneuver companies by 2027”; the Wall Street Journal reports the service is targeting around 1,000 drones at each combat division at an estimated cost of about $36 billion over five years;
• “Manned attack helicopter formations” reduced and replaced with “inexpensive drone swarms”;
• “AI-driven command and control” in use across theater, corps, and division headquarters by 2027;
• 3D printing capabilities in “operational units by 2026”;
• America’s ammunition industrial base accelerated to “full operational capability by 2028”;
• And he wants more troops and weapons stockpiled in the Indo-Pacific, with no timeline provided. 

Changes to force structure will affect “outdated formations, including select armor and aviation units.” Hegseth ordered select headquarters to be merged, including Army Futures Command folding into Training and Doctrine Command, and U.S. Army North and South merged. 

Hegseth also wants to “consolidate” select depots and arsenals in part to provide space for “commercial entities seeking to expand into the Defense Industrial Base.” Read more in the full, four-page memo (PDF).

Background reading: 

• “Falling stars? Army weighing massive cut to generals, PEO offices and AFC power,” Breaking Defense reported earlier this week; 
• “Army will trim 5% of general-officer jobs in coming years, chief’s spokesman says,” Defense One’s Meghann Myers reported in December; 
• See also our previous December commentary from R.D. Hooker, a former policy director at the Nation Security Council, “The Army is too top-heavy.” 

Update: Ospreys won’t return to full flight operations until 2026. That’s about a year later than V-22 program officials said last year; officials have now decided to upgrade gearboxes across the fleet rather than fixing only certain gears, Col. Robert Hurst, V-22 program manager, said Wednesday during the Modern Day Marine conference.

The Pentagon put restrictions on flight operations after a December 2023 crash killed eight airmen off the coast of Japan. Defense One’s Audrey Decker has details of the fix, here.

After two years, Navy signs contracts for final Block V Virginia-class attack subs. The future Baltimore (SSN-212) and Atlanta (SSN-813) were initially appropriated in the 2024 budget, but “were underfunded due to an explosion of workforce costs that raised the price of the two submarines by almost 20 percent,” USNI News wrote. “The cost increase, due in part to issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic, led to a squabble” between Congress, the Navy, and the White House over how to pay for the increase in workforce wages.

That’s finally settled with contracts worth up to $18.5 billion to General Dynamics and HII. “USNI News understands that new Secretary of the Navy John Phelan was involved in the final touches of the contract.” Read on, here.

Additional reading:

• “Pentagon's AI metals program goes private in bid to boost Western supply deals,” Reuters reported Thursday; 
• “US approves $425 million Patriot equipment and support sale to Kuwait, Pentagon says,” Reuters reported Wednesday; 
• “Trump Wants a New Air Force One So Badly He’s Refurbishing a Qatari Plane,” the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday; Reuters has similar coverage here.

Ukraine

Minerals, resource-extraction deal finally moves forward: Following weeks of at-times dramatic negotiations, White House and Ukrainian treasury officials signed an agreement to create a “Reconstruction Investment Fund” to finance “mineral extraction and oil and gas projects, as well as related infrastructure” inside Ukraine, officials in Kyiv announced Wednesday. Signatories included First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yuliia Svyrydenko as well as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Context: Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine was a top-10 global producer of titanium, zirconium, graphite, and manganese. It also holds Europe’s largest deposits of uranium. 

Key points, according to Ukrainian presidential advisor Anton Gerashchenko:

• The Reconstruction Investment Fund “is created on a 50/50 basis…Ukraine contributes 50% of the state budget revenues from new rent on new licenses for new fields.”
• “The United States contributes” via “direct funds,” but the U.S. “can also contribute new assistance, such as air defense systems for Ukraine.”

The idea: The Fund “invests in mineral extraction and oil and gas projects, as well as related infrastructure or processing,” all of which must remain “exclusively in Ukraine,” Gerashchenko wrote on social media. “Ukraine and the United States will jointly determine the specific investment projects to which the funds will be allocated,” he said. 

Notable: First for the first 10 years, “the Fund's profits and revenues will not be distributed, but can only be invested in Ukraine—in new projects or reconstruction,” Gerashchenko said. 

Caveat: “Ukraine retains exclusive ownership of all subsoil, territorial waters, and natural resources,” said Gerashchenko. And “Only Ukraine determines the conditions and locations for resource development,” he added. 

Also notable: “The Agreement does not mention any debt obligations of Ukraine to the United States,” Gerashchenko pointed out. 

Expert reax: “The deal offers no explicit defense guarantees,” observed Nataliia Shapoval of the Kyiv School of Economics. “Economically, this is a solid opportunity to pull in outside capital—potentially generating several billion in reinvestment every year,” she said. But “Politically, it’s a gamble: Zelensky’s administration is trusting that deeper economic ties might eventually yield better security commitments.”

In an optimistic read, Ukraine’s mineral “wealth and new industrial projects could anchor U.S. and Europe’s pivot to clean energy and advanced manufacturing,” Shapoval wrote. “Combined with a potential Ukraine–US future technologies and security focused fund to boost investment, the economic logic is compelling,” she noted. 

On the other hand, “Security guarantees, however, remain the big ‘if,’ leaving us in Ukraine to hope its gamble pays off both financially and militarily,” she said. Read more, here. 

Related reading: 

• “Kremlin says a deal to end the war with Ukraine can’t be achieved quickly,” the Associated Press reported Wednesday; 
• “Russians fighting more intensely despite ceasefire talk, Ukrainian commander says,” Reuters reported Wednesday; 
• “Zelenskiy praises killing of top Russian military figures,” Reuters reported Monday; 
• ICYMI, “Russia Hopes Warmer Weather Will Boost Flagging Spring Offensive,” the Wall Street Journal reported Monday; 
• “North Korea and Russia Strengthen Ties With First Road Bridge,” the New York Times reported Thursday; 
• “North Korea conducts first test firing of its new warship's weapons system,” Reuters reported Tuesday;
• You can also read more about the U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal via the AP, Wall Street Journal, New York Times, or Reuters.

Etc.

Experts see rise of powerful non-state groups as the U.S. retreats from the global stage. Several trends are giving violent extremist groups a brighter, more profitable future, security officials and experts from around the world said this week at the Soufan Center Security Forum here,” Defense One’s Patrick Tucker reports from Doha, Qatar. “Cryptocurrencies and sophisticated use of shell companies are helping them accumulate funds. AI is making recruitment and disinformation a snap. The reduction of social-media monitoring is enabling such campaigns to flourish. The U.S. retreat from multilateral diplomatic efforts is reducing the pressure that kept such groups in check.” Read on, here.

And lastly: in commentary, America’s response to measles is eroding its ability to deter biological attacks. The entirely preventable outbreak has now claimed as many U.S. lives in 11 weeks as in the previous 24 years—and it is sending a message to potential adversaries that the United States is losing its ability to respond to biological attack, writes Steph Batalis, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), and holds a Ph.D. in biochemistry and molecular biology from Wake Forest University’s School of Medicine. Read that argument, here. ]]>