While some winemakers might claim that a late April freeze is character-building, the reality is that frost damage can decimate yields and ruin a season before it has even properly begun. However, help is at hand: a new Bud Burst Model has been launched today (March 17) to assist UK vineyard managers in forecasting and managing frost risk more effectively.
The model is part of a two-year research project funded by Innovate UK and Defra and led by WeatherQuest, with support from the UK Agri-Tech Centre, Plumpton College, Vinescapes, Vinewatch and
WineGB. The initiative aims to provide vineyard managers with more detailed, site-specific frost forecasts, helping them make informed and sustainable decisions when dealing with frost events.
A data-driven approach to frost management
At the heart of the project is the Bud Burst Hub app, which allows vineyard managers to record the timing of budburst across different regions and grape varieties. The data collected will be used to refine the Bud Burst Model, offering growers better insights into when their vines are most vulnerable to frost damage and enabling them to take timely preventative action.
Professor Steve Dorling, head of innovation at WeatherQuest, explains: “The weather strongly influences budburst dates, but we need help from the wine community to continue testing and refining our budburst prediction models. Combining this with forecasts of frost and frost type makes for a powerful end-to-end decision support system for vineyard teams.”
The importance of tracking budburst
Budburst is a critical moment in the vineyard’s growing cycle, marking the point at which dormant vines begin their journey towards producing this year’s vintage. By tracking budburst timing, vineyard managers can better plan activities such as pruning, spraying and canopy management. The timing of budburst also offers an early indication of how the growing season might unfold, influencing decisions around harvest timing and overall vineyard strategy.
Moreover, long-term tracking of budburst data allows viticulturists to monitor the effects of climate change. Shifts in budburst timing could indicate broader climatic trends, prompting adjustments in vineyard practices or even grape variety selection.
Alistair Nesbitt, CEO of Vinescapes and chair of the WineGB R&D Working Group, urges vineyard owners to get involved: “This is such a great opportunity for the UK wine sector to work together to create smarter frost forecasting. The more data we get the better the model will be so please help us help you by entering your budburst dates, it just takes a few seconds, we’ll do the rest.”
Aligning with WineGB’s broader strategy
The Bud Burst Model aligns with WineGB’s wider mission to support the sustainable growth of the UK wine industry. As outlined in their
Cultivating Success strategy, managing climate variability is a key industry priority. WineGB’s three-year programme aims to ensure the sector remains resilient by tackling weather-related challenges head-on, including frost risk.
With £300,000 allocated to frost-related research, this project is a significant step towards helping vineyard owners safeguard their yields. As WineGB’s strategy states, “Great Britain is a sustainable wine region of world renown, recognised and celebrated for the quality of its wines and visitor experiences.” Providing vineyard owners with improved forecasting tools supports this goal, ensuring long-term viability despite increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
Easy-to-use app for vineyard owners
For those concerned that submitting data will add another layer of admin to an already demanding job, the feedback so far is encouraging. Ian Beecher-Jones, owner of JoJo’s Vineyard, describes the Bud Burst Hub app as “easy to use for recording budburst at JoJo’s” and highlights its potential to improve understanding of national trends.
Similarly, Paul Jellicoe, MD of Vinewatch, emphasises the value of precise data in an area often dominated by anecdotal evidence: “Frost mitigation information is fractured and largely anecdotal. This app is another very important step to help managers get truly meaningful data. With this, they will be able to make properly informed decisions about their environment.”
A collective effort for better frost forecasting
With the UK’s wine industry continuing to expand, initiatives like this could prove invaluable in mitigating one of the greatest threats to vineyard productivity. While winemakers will always need to keep one eye on the weather, better data and forecasting tools could at least help them sleep a little easier when frost threatens.
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