How Tender Rejections Predict Your Next Rate

Every week, thousands of loads move across the country before a single rate hits the load board. That’s because most freight—especially high-volume freight—starts with a contract. Shippers send out tenders to their core carriers, usually the same ones every week. But when those carriers say no? That’s when things start to shift—and it’s also when the money starts moving.

The problem is, most small carriers and owner-operators aren’t watching what’s happening upstream. They’re watching load boards. They’re looking at what they got paid last week. And by the time they realize something’s changed, the smart brokers have already made their move.

This article breaks down what a tender rejection is, how it’s tracked, and how it can predict your next rates—if you know where to look.

What Is a Tender Rejection

Let’s break it down simple. A tender is a shipment offer from a shipper to a contract carrier. Think of it like this: a shipper says, “We’ve got a load leaving Atlanta going to Columbus. Can you move it for $1,950 like we agreed last month?”

If the carrier says yes, that’s accepted. If they say no—maybe they don’t have a truck, or the spot market’s paying better—that’s a tender rejection.

When enough of those get rejected in a given market, that freight has to go somewhere else. And where does it go?

The spot market.

This is where it gets critical for small carriers. You might not have access to the initial tender, but once it gets rejected, you’re in play. If you’re watching rejection data, you can position your truck before the freight hits the board—and you can negotiate stronger because you know the market’s getting tighter.

Where This Data Comes From

The freight market doesn’t run on guesswork. Large shippers and brokers use data tools like SONAR from FreightWaves to track trends. One of the most important metrics in SONAR is the Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI).

This number shows what percentage of loads are being rejected by contract carriers in a specific market.

If the OTRI in Chicago jumps from 5% to 10%, that means twice as many loads are being turned down. That’s a signal that capacity is tightening (available trucks are declining)—and spot rates are likely to rise in that market in the next few days.

Carriers who are watching this in real time can reposition their truck or push harder on rate in markets where tender rejections are rising.

What Different Rejection Levels Actually Mean

Here’s how to read the signal:

• OTRI under 5% – Contract freight is being covered easily. No major pressure on spot rates. Expect soft rates on load boards.
  
• OTRI between 5–10% – Capacity is getting tighter. Spot market may start to absorb overflow freight. Rates likely to rise slightly.
  
• OTRI over 10% – Shippers are struggling to cover freight. Brokers are calling more carriers. Spot market is heating up fast.
  

If you’re running a lane and you see OTRI climbing for that origin city, that’s a real-time green light to hold your ground on rate—or even raise it.

Real-World Scenario

Let’s say you’re parked in Dallas. You’re thinking about bouncing to Houston to find freight.

You check SONAR and see:

• Dallas OTRI = 4.3%
  
• Houston OTRI = 11.2%
  

What does that mean? It means Houston contract carriers are rejecting more freight—likely due to higher-paying spot market options or truck shortages. That’s your signal.

So instead of sitting on Dallas at $2.15/mile, you make the short reposition to Houston, where brokers are under pressure and spot rates are climbing.

A move like that could add $400–$600 to your week with no change in total miles—just a smarter play based on rejection data if you play it right. 

Why Brokers Use This Against You

Brokers aren’t guessing what to pay you. They’re watching tender rejections too.

If OTRI is low, they know they’ve got leverage. They’ll tell you:

“That lane’s been soft all week—we’ve got plenty of options.”

But when OTRI jumps? That’s when you hear:

“I’ve got a shipper that needs coverage right now—can you do it for $2,400?”

Most of the time, they knew that lane tightened days ago—they just waited to call when the pressure hit.

Carriers who know OTRI numbers ahead of the phone call get to flip the script. They stop chasing what’s posted and start controlling what they’re worth.

How to Track Tender Rejections Without SONAR

If you’re not a SONAR user (or part of the Playbook Masterclass where we break this down weekly), you can still spot rejection patterns through:

• Load board volume shifts – sudden spikes in load count often follow tender rejections
  
• Rate swings by region – if the same lane suddenly pays $300 more than last week, contract freight likely spilled
  
• Broker behavior – when brokers start calling instead of posting, something’s changing
  
• Time to cover loads – when it takes longer to get a truck booked, it usually follows rejection pressure
  

The goal is to make these signals part of your planning routine—not something you notice after you’re already loaded.

Tactical Steps to Use Tender Rejection Data

Here’s how to make this part of your daily workflow—whether you’re running one truck or managing a small team.

Step 1 – Identify Your Regular Freight Zones

Figure out the top 3–5 origin markets you run out of most often (example: Memphis, Harrisburg, Dallas, Joliet).

Step 2 – Watch Rejection Rates Weekly

Track whether rejections in those markets are rising, falling, or flat. Even a 1–2% increase is a signal.

Step 3 – Adjust Your Negotiation Strategy

If OTRI is rising in that market, don’t undercut yourself. Quote strong, walk if the math doesn’t work.

If OTRI is low, build in buffer lanes or add short hauls to compensate for weaker pricing.

Step 4 – Time Your Repositioning

Move your truck before the crowd. If rejection rates are climbing in a nearby market, reposition early—don’t wait until everyone else is chasing the same freight.

What Tender Rejections Can’t Tell You

Let’s be clear—OTRI is not a silver bullet. It won’t tell you:

• Whether the freight is high quality (some rejections are for junk freight)
  
• Whether brokers are paying what they should (some will lowball even in tight markets)
  
• Whether accessorials, wait times, or backhauls make it a profitable run
  

But OTRI does tell you where the leverage is shifting. And in trucking, leverage = money.

Final Word

Tender rejections are the earliest signal you’ll ever get that a rate is about to change. If you wait until the load board reflects it, you’re already behind. If you wait until a broker tells you “things are heating up,” it’s too late.

But if you’re watching OTRI—and making decisions off that data—you stop reacting and start running your truck like a business.

Because this market doesn’t reward who’s working the hardest. It rewards who’s reading the game the best.

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