Australia could get first new F-35 by 2029 if government reverses program cuts: Lockheed exec

Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) F-35A Lightning IIs, assigned to the No. 3 Squadron, arrive to receive fuel from a U.S. Air Force KC-46A Pegasus from the 13th Expeditionary Aerial Refueling Squadron over Australia during Talisman Sabre 23, Aug. 1, 2023. (Photo by Tech. Sgt. Eric Summers Pacific Air Forces.)

AVALON AIR SHOW — The first of 28 new F-35 stealth fighters that were previously canceled by the incumbent government in Canberra could be delivered to the Royal Australian Air Force as soon as 2029, should Australia go ahead with the order, according to an executive with plane maker Lockheed Martin. 

“At this point, if somebody said, ‘inject Australian airplanes into the first lot available,’ it would be Lot 21 airplanes that would deliver in 2029,” J.R. McDonald, Lockheed’s vice president of business development for the F-35 program, said in a briefing with reporters here at the Avalon Air Show on Tuesday.

Considering negotiations can often take considerable time, McDonald admitted that it would be an “amazing feat” to “go from zero to an agreement” in short order. Still, “conceivably, based on where we are buying long-lead parts for Lot 21 we could make that happen. And there’s always some maneuvering to be done even inside of that, but in a normal sequence, we could be looking at Lot 21 airplanes at this point.”

The Australian government would also have to determine the delivery profile, McDonald said, shaping how many jets for the country could be built in a given production lot. Lockheed says it produces at a rate of 156 aircraft annually. 

Although an original program of record called for 100 F-35s, the incumbent Australian Labor government canceled an order for an additional squadron consisting of 28 jets last year top shift money to other priorities. The opposition facing down the incumbent government in Canberra is reportedly promising $3 billion AUD to restore that squadron if it wins the upcoming federal election. Australia currently operates 72 F-35As, and the final jet was delivered in December 2024. 

Any decision to restore the fighter squadron would also be made amid rapidly changing political dynamics, as the new Trump administration has already caused some current F-35 customers like Canada to reconsider their acquisition of the stealth fighter. The US could hamstring the fighter for foreign buyers if a decision was made to cut off support elements like maintenance, spare parts and access to US computer networks, one expert previously told Breaking Defense.

Asked what could assuage customer concerns about control over their F-35s in a separate interview with Breaking Defense on Wednesday, Nick Smythe, Lockheed’s business development vice president for sustainment, said previous examples have already established the ability for countries to operate their F-35 fleets largely independently.

“What’s past is prologue here,” Smythe said, pointing to examples like Finland and Switzerland who “ran very sophisticated competitions with very stringent sovereign capability requirements for closed border operations for extended periods of time” and ultimately selected the F-35. 

“The way we were able to prove that closed border operations are 100 percent within the capabilities of this asset so long as you plan for it correctly, I think the proof’s in the pudding right there with Finland and Switzerland saying ‘yes, F-35,’ and I believe I have sufficient sovereign capability,” he said.