The economic situation and the "surreal" threat of American tariffs in Europe
Clothing recovers (+1.4%) Credits: FashionUnited, immagine realizzata con l'utilizzo dell'intelligenza artificiale According to Confcommercio, the current threats of the American administration towards Europe appear surreal. In fact, writes, today March 24, the Confcommercio Research Office, in 2023, European exports of goods to the USA were equal to approximately 504 billion euros and imports over 347 billion euros (balance of 157 in favor of Europe). On the contrary, exports of services from the Europe of 27 to the USA are worth almost 319 billion euros, while European imports of services from the USA exceed 427 billion euros (balance of 108 in favor of the United States). For example, according to data from the General Confederation of Italian Enterprises, which associates over 700,000 companies, the real overall balance that would be detrimental to the US economy, directly caused by trade with the Europe of 27, is approximately 52 billion dollars, equal to 0.18% of the US GDP. Consumption down in February (-0.9%); clothing recovers (+1.4%) The official economic indicators for the first two months of the current year indicate growth, perhaps sluggish, but not a reduction. All things considered, the estimates of the ICC, Confcommercio consumption indicator, remain positive in the metric of seasonally adjusted data: +0.2% and +0.1% in January and February. In the raw metric, the variation in calendar days depresses the parameters, giving the statistics two minus signs, with February (-0.9%) penalized by the comparison with the same leap month of 2024. "Beyond the technical details, the issue of greater real disposable income that does not translate into greater consumption still appears unresolved. In the first two months of the year, support for consumption comes from the use of free time and tourism: recreational services and goods, hotels and restaurants, air transport and telecommunications are increasing, even significantly. On the other hand, food, means of transport, furniture and household appliances appear to be decreasing. Clothing and footwear take on an intermediate position between these extremes", reads the note from Confcommercio. Conditions for consumption recovery, but GDP target +0.8% still to be achieved Monthly GDP would have grown in trend and seasonally adjusted terms by seven tenths in March, after two moderate increases in January and February (+0.3% and +0.1%). Growth in the first quarter would be 0.4% compared to the same quarter of 2024. "Therefore, in this scenario, which will not be able to take advantage of favorable statistical corrections like last year, growth of 0.8% overall in 2025 requires an acceleration. Possible but, once again, all to be achieved", explain the experts of the Research Office. The trend dynamics Also in the month of February 2025, the dynamics of the different consumption functions that make up the Confcommercio consumption indicator are very complex, a further symptom of the difficulties of consumption to get on a growth path. Among the different spending functions, the most positive dynamics, in the annual comparison, are confirmed as those relating to goods and services for communication (+5.3%). Demand for hotels and meals and out-of-home consumption also remains in positive territory (+1.3%), a segment that continues to benefit from the positive contribution of the foreign component of demand. In February, appreciable signs of recovery involved the consumption of clothing and footwear (+1.4%), improving the less than brilliant results of the January sales. This article was translated to English using an AI tool. FashionUnited uses AI language tools to speed up translating (news) articles and proofread the translations to improve the end result. This saves our human journalists time they can spend doing research and writing original articles. Articles translated with the help of AI are checked and edited by a human desk editor prior to going online. If you have questions or comments about this process email us at info@fashionunited.com
According to Confcommercio, the current threats of the American administration towards Europe appear surreal. In fact, writes, today March 24, the Confcommercio Research Office, in 2023, European exports of goods to the USA were equal to approximately 504 billion euros and imports over 347 billion euros (balance of 157 in favor of Europe). On the contrary, exports of services from the Europe of 27 to the USA are worth almost 319 billion euros, while European imports of services from the USA exceed 427 billion euros (balance of 108 in favor of the United States). For example, according to data from the General Confederation of Italian Enterprises, which associates over 700,000 companies, the real overall balance that would be detrimental to the US economy, directly caused by trade with the Europe of 27, is approximately 52 billion dollars, equal to 0.18% of the US GDP.
Consumption down in February (-0.9%); clothing recovers (+1.4%)
The official economic indicators for the first two months of the current year indicate growth, perhaps sluggish, but not a reduction. All things considered, the estimates of the ICC, Confcommercio consumption indicator, remain positive in the metric of seasonally adjusted data: +0.2% and +0.1% in January and February. In the raw metric, the variation in calendar days depresses the parameters, giving the statistics two minus signs, with February (-0.9%) penalized by the comparison with the same leap month of 2024.
"Beyond the technical details, the issue of greater real disposable income that does not translate into greater consumption still appears unresolved. In the first two months of the year, support for consumption comes from the use of free time and tourism: recreational services and goods, hotels and restaurants, air transport and telecommunications are increasing, even significantly. On the other hand, food, means of transport, furniture and household appliances appear to be decreasing. Clothing and footwear take on an intermediate position between these extremes", reads the note from Confcommercio.
Conditions for consumption recovery, but GDP target +0.8% still to be achieved
Monthly GDP would have grown in trend and seasonally adjusted terms by seven tenths in March, after two moderate increases in January and February (+0.3% and +0.1%). Growth in the first quarter would be 0.4% compared to the same quarter of 2024. "Therefore, in this scenario, which will not be able to take advantage of favorable statistical corrections like last year, growth of 0.8% overall in 2025 requires an acceleration. Possible but, once again, all to be achieved", explain the experts of the Research Office.
The trend dynamics
Also in the month of February 2025, the dynamics of the different consumption functions that make up the Confcommercio consumption indicator are very complex, a further symptom of the difficulties of consumption to get on a growth path. Among the different spending functions, the most positive dynamics, in the annual comparison, are confirmed as those relating to goods and services for communication (+5.3%). Demand for hotels and meals and out-of-home consumption also remains in positive territory (+1.3%), a segment that continues to benefit from the positive contribution of the foreign component of demand. In February, appreciable signs of recovery involved the consumption of clothing and footwear (+1.4%), improving the less than brilliant results of the January sales.
FashionUnited uses AI language tools to speed up translating (news) articles and proofread the translations to improve the end result. This saves our human journalists time they can spend doing research and writing original articles. Articles translated with the help of AI are checked and edited by a human desk editor prior to going online. If you have questions or comments about this process email us at info@fashionunited.com
This article was translated to English using an AI tool.
