Alcoholic drinks industry to grow US$34 billion by 2034
The global alcoholic drinks sector is set to grow by US$16 billion in the next five years and show US$34 billion in growth within a decade. The post Alcoholic drinks industry to grow US$34 billion by 2034 appeared first on The Drinks Business.
The global alcoholic drinks sector is set to grow by US$16 billion in the next five years and show US$34 billion in growth within a decade.
The forecasts, released by data and insight analysts at the IWSR, have predicted 10 years of steady growth and align with the company’s 2024 industry forecast which showed a mixed year amidst a challenging political and economic landscape.
According to the findings, global beverage alcohol volume was down 1% but value was up 1%. Looking more closely, several developing markets for beverage alcohol posted strong growth during 2024. Most notably, India added 6% in total beverage alcohol volume and 9% in total beverage alcohol value. Growth was evident across all categories, but most notably in beer and whisky.
Total beverage alcohol in Brazil grew just over 1% by volume in 2024 but value surged by 5%. Growing sectors included premium beer, RTDs and brandy. Meanwhile, South Africa posted even stronger figures, with 2024 total beverage alcohol volume up by 3% and value up 10%. This growth, according to the data, was driven largely by beer and RTDs, including wine-based RTDs, which the analysts highlighted had become a more fashionable and affordable alternative to traditional wine.
In terms of global trends, non-alcoholic drinks continued to display strong growth in 2024, showing how the category has taken off. Non-alcoholic beer volume was up 9%, and IWSR now forecasts that it will surpass ale to become the second largest overall beer category by volume worldwide this year.
Additionally, RTDs have continued their global growth in 2024, up 2% in volume and nearly 5% in value. While hard seltzers continue to decline, cocktails and long drinks are surging in most major markets, and hard tea experienced 31% annual volume growth in the US.
Last year, the analysis shows that overall beer volume declined, but the category is continuing to benefit from premiumisation trends in several key markets. For instance, premium beer volumes grew by 1% in China, while super premium beer in the US grew by 2%. Stout growth was also extremely strong, most notably in the UK, where volume grew by 15%, while in the US, stout volume grew by 5%.
Looking at the rest of the sector, global spirits volume was down 2% in 2024, but significant growth was recorded in several key markets and categories. One example can be seen by how Scotch whisky consumption in India grew by 6% in volume and 7% in value, and India is now forecast to become the biggest Scotch market in the world by 2027, showing the promise that this market offers for luxury drinks brands. Additionally, Tequila enjoyed substantial growth outside of its home market Mexico in 2024, growing by 2% in volume and 4% in value across all other markets.
In addition to the 2024 annual data release, IWSR has also launched two new products, a global forecast suite and new on-trade value data which are set to offer up topline information on the direction of the marketplace.
IWSR chief operating officer Emily Neill said: “Beverage alcohol growth momentum has decisively shifted towards developing markets, with India likely to be the biggest engine of growth for the next decade, followed by Brazil and Mexico.”
IWSR senior economist Martin Belchev added: “Economic growth in developing markets is set to push up average disposable incomes, which in turn will fuel volume opportunities growth in key markets, such as India and broader LATAM. Global uncertainty, however, will continue to present both demand and operational risks, and will require enhanced scenario-planning capabilities.”
The forecasts, released by data and insight analysts at the IWSR, have predicted 10 years of steady growth and align with the company’s 2024 industry forecast which showed a mixed year amidst a challenging political and economic landscape.
According to the findings, global beverage alcohol volume was down 1% but value was up 1%. Looking more closely, several developing markets for beverage alcohol posted strong growth during 2024. Most notably, India added 6% in total beverage alcohol volume and 9% in total beverage alcohol value. Growth was evident across all categories, but most notably in beer and whisky.
Total beverage alcohol in Brazil grew just over 1% by volume in 2024 but value surged by 5%. Growing sectors included premium beer, RTDs and brandy. Meanwhile, South Africa posted even stronger figures, with 2024 total beverage alcohol volume up by 3% and value up 10%. This growth, according to the data, was driven largely by beer and RTDs, including wine-based RTDs, which the analysts highlighted had become a more fashionable and affordable alternative to traditional wine.
In terms of global trends, non-alcoholic drinks continued to display strong growth in 2024, showing how the category has taken off. Non-alcoholic beer volume was up 9%, and IWSR now forecasts that it will surpass ale to become the second largest overall beer category by volume worldwide this year.
Additionally, RTDs have continued their global growth in 2024, up 2% in volume and nearly 5% in value. While hard seltzers continue to decline, cocktails and long drinks are surging in most major markets, and hard tea experienced 31% annual volume growth in the US.
Last year, the analysis shows that overall beer volume declined, but the category is continuing to benefit from premiumisation trends in several key markets. For instance, premium beer volumes grew by 1% in China, while super premium beer in the US grew by 2%. Stout growth was also extremely strong, most notably in the UK, where volume grew by 15%, while in the US, stout volume grew by 5%.
Looking at the rest of the sector, global spirits volume was down 2% in 2024, but significant growth was recorded in several key markets and categories. One example can be seen by how Scotch whisky consumption in India grew by 6% in volume and 7% in value, and India is now forecast to become the biggest Scotch market in the world by 2027, showing the promise that this market offers for luxury drinks brands. Additionally, Tequila enjoyed substantial growth outside of its home market Mexico in 2024, growing by 2% in volume and 4% in value across all other markets.
In addition to the 2024 annual data release, IWSR has also launched two new products, a global forecast suite and new on-trade value data which are set to offer up topline information on the direction of the marketplace.
IWSR chief operating officer Emily Neill said: “Beverage alcohol growth momentum has decisively shifted towards developing markets, with India likely to be the biggest engine of growth for the next decade, followed by Brazil and Mexico.”
IWSR senior economist Martin Belchev added: “Economic growth in developing markets is set to push up average disposable incomes, which in turn will fuel volume opportunities growth in key markets, such as India and broader LATAM. Global uncertainty, however, will continue to present both demand and operational risks, and will require enhanced scenario-planning capabilities.” 
