The Worst 100 Days Of A Presidency

I’m jumping the gun. The 100th day of Donald Trump’s presidency is actually tomorrow, April 29. But I have a Monday column here at Above the Law, so I’m celebrating early.

I ask you this: What president had the worst first 100 days of his presidency?

And I answer, without hesitation . . . . May I have a drum roll, please?

Abraham Lincoln, of course.

Don’t be silly about this.  

Between Lincoln’s election (in November 1860) and inauguration (in March 1861), seven states seceded from the Union. Four more states seceded in the first 100 days after Lincoln’s inauguration. The First Battle of Bull Run — the initial full-scale battle of the Civil War — was fought on July 21, 1861. Since Lincoln’s first 100 days would have expired on June 12, I can’t legitimately include Bull Run in my litany. But Lincoln’s first 100 days were unimaginably bad.

Hey! We’ve denied Trump a boast! He can’t say that “I had the most remarkable first 100 days of any president!” 

The truth is this: Trump ranks second in the list of presidents’ worst 100 days.

Why?

Start with the permanent damage that Trump has inflicted on the security of the world. Trump has let NATO know that the United States can’t be trusted as an ally. Trump has said explicitly that the United States will not defend countries that don’t meet their defense spending targets and that the United States may withdraw entirely from NATO. Trump has thus undermined the credibility of the alliance that has maintained the world’s peace for the past 80 years.

This has real consequences. Trump’s words shatter European faith in NATO. His words may cause more European countries to develop nuclear weapons. His words increase the likelihood that Russia will attack one of the smaller members of the alliance.

And Trump’s words resonate beyond Europe. If NATO can’t trust the United States as an ally, why should any other country? South Korea, or Taiwan, or Japan are all technologically advanced countries with the capacity to build nuclear weapons. Absent confidence in America, they may choose to develop their own nuclear deterrents. Once the Pandora’s Box of nuclear proliferation has been opened, it won’t close easily.

Trump compounded this problem by abandoning Ukraine in its war against Russia. This again proved that the U.S. is not a reliable ally. Abandoning Ukraine rewarded Russia for its aggression against another country and encouraged Russia to seek more territorial conquest in Europe. It emboldened China in its quest for Taiwan. And the abandonment relinquished an opportunity to degrade Russia’s military at a cost of only American weapons, not lives.

Other than that, Trump’s decision was a good one.

But that’s just the beginning of what Trump accomplished in his first 100 days.

Trump also destroyed the world’s faith in the United States as a trading partner. Trump invoked national security exceptions to the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (the successor to NAFTA) in a transparent ruse to evade that agreement (which the Trump administration itself negotiated during Trump’s first term). Trump has imposed wholesale tariffs on countries around the world, which are widely viewed as violations of the World Trade Organization’s rules. And any rational country now knows it would be insane to rely on the United States as a trading partner, because the United States could, in the future, stab other countries in the back by imposing tariffs or restricting trade for any reason, or no reason at all. Countries will diversify their trading partners, and the U.S. will suffer from that diversification for a long, long time.

You’re seeing the “sell America” trade — American stocks, bonds, and the value of the dollar all losing value simultaneously — as a result of this lost confidence in the United States. It took decades to build up trust in the U.S. It took only weeks to destroy that confidence. And nothing that Trump can say or do will restore America’s place in the world. Trump has proven that he’s unreliable; that reputation won’t go away.

For a list of early accomplishments in a presidential administration, those two would be plenty. But Trump destroyed the world’s respect for the United States in other ways. Trump threatened to turn Canada into America’s 51st state, and he threatened to take over Greenland by force. If Trump actually intends to do these things, then the United States has become a rogue superpower, no longer governed by any world order. If Trump doesn’t intend to do these things, then Trump is an idiot for having suggested them, even in jest.

What’s done often can’t be undone. Now that the world doesn’t trust us, it may take decades to restore faith in America.

Those things are just the permanent damage that Trump has done to the world order and the standing of the United States. He’s done some other stuff that is moronic but wouldn’t otherwise make his first 100 days list. Trump has threatened to ignore court orders, raising the possibility of a full-fledged constitutional crisis. The Department of Homeland Security is, with no semblance of due process, deporting folks. Trump’s attacking law firms; he’s attacking academic freedom at universities; he’s attacking the system by which medical research is financed. Trump pardoned the criminals who ransacked the Capitol Building on January 6, 2021. Either those folks attacked the Capitol without Trump’s encouragement, in which case they belong in prison, or they attacked the Capitol with Trump’s encouragement, in which case Trump belongs behind bars with them. Trump appointed people to his Cabinet who were unqualified to begin with (RFK Jr.; Tulsi Gabbard; Pete Hegseth) and who have since confirmed their ineptitude (by, for example, distributing military attack plans on a commercial messaging app to folks with no need to know this information). Trump stands by this ineptitude, because Trump’s show of strength lets his base know that Trump owns the libs, even if Trump also owns the stupidity. 

But I’m not one to suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome. I acknowledge that Trump did some good stuff in his first 100 days. Getting rid of the penny is a great idea. (It makes cents.)

Consider one distinction between Lincoln and Trump’s first 100 days. All of the disastrous events of Lincoln’s first 100 days were outside of Lincoln’s control. Lincoln didn’t secede; southern states did. Conversely, all of the disastrous events during Trump’s first 100 days were entirely of Trump’s volition. Trump chose to withdraw from NATO; Trump chose to begin a trade war; Trump chose to threaten to disobey court orders.

My God! Bull Run didn’t occur until about the 120th day of Lincoln’s presidency. Where will we be by (checks calendar) the end of May?

Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.

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