Opinion: A grim milestone: U.S. is on the cusp of losing its official measles elimination status
We have had the ability to prevent nearly all cases of measles for more than 60 years. Yet the number of cases keeps growing.
With each week’s Centers for Disease Control update of measles case numbers, the United States creeps closer to a grim, now seemingly inevitable milestone. Driven by a months-long, multistate outbreak centered in West Texas, this year’s total — now more than 1,200 cases, including three deaths — will soon be the highest in more than 30 years. We will have surpassed even the banner year of 2019, when measles dominated the news, strained public health systems, and prompted emergency declarations and school closures — a prelude to Covid.
We are in a considerably worse position now than we were in 2019. Confidence in public health measures, especially vaccines, divides starkly along political lines. The national rate for measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination among kindergarteners, which in 2019 was only barely above the 95% threshold for prevention of measles outbreaks, is now under 93% and falling. Such national numbers tell an incomplete story, as low vaccination rates at the level of counties, cities, or even neighborhoods are sufficient for the spread to continue over months or years. The Texas statewide MMR rate is 94%, but Gaines County, the outbreak epicenter, has a local rate of about 80%.
