ITS Logistics report shows surge stressing US rail ramps after tariffs slashed

Tariff adjustments and operational constraints are shadowing the U.S. domestic supply chain, a new forecast finds.

The May forecast for the ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index confirms previously projected steep import declines following tariff increases on Chinese goods, while highlighting emerging issues at rail facilities.

There are also alarming cargo theft trends that are expected to impact the industry throughout 2025.

The latest index data validates earlier projections of significant import volume reductions resulting from heightened tariffs on Chinese goods. Simultaneously, rail ramps in strategic regions are experiencing operational pressure as shippers increasingly utilize interior point intermodal (IPI) routing to manage frontloaded inventory. This shift in logistics strategy has created new operational challenges while exposing vulnerabilities in the supply chain.

Operational stress levels are elevated for Chicago; Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee; Louisville, Kentucky; Atlanta; Columbus, Ohio; and Toronto. Ramps through the Atlantic, Pacific, Western and Gulf regions show normal ramp operations.

Negotiators on May 12 announced a temporary tariff reduction agreement between the U.S. and China. Under this 90-day arrangement, the U.S. has lowered tariffs from 145% to 30%, while China has reduced duties on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. This adjustment has created immediate market optimism, with shippers eager to resume imports, replenish depleted inventories and prepare for upcoming holiday seasons.

The sudden surge in demand, coupled with uncertainty about long-term availability of Chinese imports, appears likely to trigger another frontloading event, potentially driving an early start to peak season for key industries, particularly retail.

“I have clients with thousands of containers pre-loaded in China that are ready to come in,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain at ITS, in a note. Over the next four to six weeks, Brashier expects a surge of containers, calling the 90-day pause “the pivotal moment for supply chain planning out of China.”

Preparation for peak season

With increasing evidence pointing toward accelerated shipping activity, industry experts recommend immediate action to secure necessary resources. “Shippers should be prepared to increase trucking and equipment capacity immediately to ensure they can withstand volatility and get their goods to market on time,” said Brashier.

Companies that fail to secure adequate transportation and equipment capacity risk significant delays and potential inventory shortages during what appears to be developing into an earlier and potentially more extended peak season than initially anticipated.

Emerging challenges in cargo theft

Compounding these market dynamics is a troubling rise in cargo theft. Criminal networks in both domestic and international markets are increasingly exploiting vulnerabilities in supply chain systems, including technology meant to enhance operational efficiency.

Recent media reports estimate annual losses from cargo theft approaching or exceeding $1 billion. Highway, a leader in fraud prevention solutions, reported blocking more than 914,000 fraud attempts in 2024, with over 400,000 blocked in Q1 of 2025 alone — a dramatic increase highlighting the escalating sophistication of criminal operations targeting freight movements.

Association of American Railroads data revealed a 40% year-over-year increase in container theft incidents in 2024, creating additional concerns as more shippers utilize IPI routing. In the months before April’s tariff announcement, many companies redirected frontloaded inventories from congested ports to inland rail facilities, inadvertently creating new bottlenecks at these locations where cargo theft is now surging.

“Using IPI offers more storage elasticity and allows shippers to avoid 3PL storage fees on frontloaded inventories,” Brashier said. “However, chassis availability and congested ramp operations are becoming more frequent, and theft at interchanges between rail providers is a serious ongoing concern.”

This growing security crisis has prompted industry stakeholders to demand federal intervention as vulnerabilities in supply chain operations continue to increase.

ITS said companies should prepare for an early peak season that will likely extend throughout the third quarter. Organizations should implement comprehensive security measures, particularly for high-value shipments moving through rail interchanges.

Looking ahead to Q4, additional market factors including tax policy changes, deregulation initiatives and Federal Reserve policy adjustments could potentially stimulate economic growth, driving higher year-over-year volumes and creating additional capacity challenges.

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Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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