‘A name they trust’: how tariffs and tastes are shaping the future of American wine

As Trump’s latest tariffs jolt the transatlantic drinks trade, American wineries are finding themselves both burdened and bolstered. Amid global flux, Cakebread Cellars CEO Mike Jaeger explains how legacy, innovation and regional exploration are driving the next chapter in US wine. The post ‘A name they trust’: how tariffs and tastes are shaping the future of American wine appeared first on The Drinks Business.

May 20, 2025 - 12:35

‘A name they trust’: how tariffs and tastes are shaping the future of American wine

As Trump’s latest tariffs jolt the transatlantic drinks trade, American wineries are finding themselves both burdened and bolstered. Amid global flux, Cakebread Cellars CEO Mike Jaeger explains how legacy, innovation and regional exploration are driving the next chapter in US wine.

At a time when transatlantic wine relations are being redefined by President Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, American wineries are navigating more than just a pricing issue, they’re confronting a fundamental reshaping of how and where wine is made, sold and consumed. While French, Spanish and Italian producers brace for an uphill battle in the US market, American wineries like Cakebread Cellars find themselves in a complex and potentially advantageous position: pushed by geopolitics, pulled by shifting consumer preferences. Mike Jaeger, CEO of Cakebread Cellars, speaks to db with the calm assurance of someone who has watched the wine world change over nearly four decades. From his vantage point, the current tariff turmoil is less a sudden disruption than a moment of acceleration, pushing forward a transformation already well underway in the US wine industry.

A dual consumer base and a shifting value system

Asked what’s fuelling the projected US$118 billion growth of the US wine market by 2030, Jaeger sees two parallel forces at play: an older, loyal base willing to spend more for assurance and craftsmanship, and a younger, inquisitive generation seeking accessibility without compromising on quality. “From our perspective, two main forces drive the market forward: continued premiumisation from the market’s current audience and the rise of a new, younger consumer base,” he tells db. “They're trading up, looking for craftsmanship, consistency and a name they trust. That’s precisely where Cakebread Cellars sits as a destination brand on that journey, and we want to be their go-to name.” But this premiumisation is no longer just about price, it’s about meaning. Consumers want wines that align with their values, that offer transparency, and that tell a story, something Jaeger believes domestic producers are uniquely positioned to deliver.

Expanding the map: Beyond Napa

For Cakebread, growth hasn’t come from resting on its storied Napa laurels. Under Jaeger’s leadership, the winery has strategically expanded into new regions, building a portfolio that speaks to a changing market. “These moves were about positioning the business for long-term growth,” he explains. “We saw a growing desire from consumers, particularly newer wine drinkers, for delicious wines that are priced right to enjoy on any occasion.” Enter Bezel, sourced from California’s Central Coast and designed for those “who are earlier in their wine journey and looking for wines that fit seamlessly into their real-life moments,” and Mullan Road Cellars, which offers the “same caliber in a new region” for more exploratory drinkers seeking structure and expressiveness in Washington’s Royal Slope AVA. By branching out geographically, Cakebread is also broadening its experiential relevance. “Each [brand] is optimised to meet the needs of a specific audience and occasion,” says Jaeger. “At every level, they reflect the merit and integrity consumers expect from the Cakebread Cellars name.”

New AVAs, new opportunities

As international logistics become more fraught, emerging American regions offer more than novelty — they offer resilience. “Emerging AVAs are critical in shaping the next chapter of American wine,” Jaeger says. “They offer producers access to superior fruit from distinct climates and terroirs, while giving consumers something new to explore.” The San Luis Obispo Coast, with its long growing season and coastal influence, is singled out for its “vibrant, balanced wines” and growing status as a destination. Meanwhile, Washington’s Royal Slope AVA is celebrated for its high elevation and long daylight hours, producing “serious Cabernet and Chardonnay” that align with Cakebread’s precision-driven philosophy. These newer regions are doing more than producing fruit. As Jaeger notes, “They’re helping to reshape and define consumer perceptions. This influx of new energy is revitalising interest in American wine, benefiting the entire industry.”

Family-first resilience

When global conditions are unpredictable, a family-owned model can be a strategic advantage. “The most significant advantage is stability. We’re not driven by short-term performance. Instead, we’re thinking in terms of generations,” says Jaeger. That long-term mindset extends beyond financial resilience, it includes commitments to sustainability, employee retention and land stewardship. “Culture is another strength. Many of our team members have been with us for decades… Even as we grow, we stay grounded in a family-first mindset and a commitment to excellence.”

Tariffs, trust and tactical patience

The wine world is still gauging the full implications of the latest tariffs. European producers face stark realities, while American wineries must walk a fine line between short-term opportunity and long-term ecosystem health. “It’s too soon to tell how this will impact us in the long run,” Jaeger admits. “We’re seeing increased attention on domestic wines, but it’s still early.” Still, there are signs of domestic advantage emerging: “As the landscape shifts, retailers and consumers are interested in reliable, high-quality American producers, offering opportunity.” Yet the benefits are not one-sided. As Jaeger cautions, “We recognise geopolitical tensions can simultaneously cause increases in the cost of goods used to produce domestic wines, including French oak and cork… We consider every facet of the wine industry as critical partners to our combined success, and hope to see a balance where everyone can thrive.”

A constant in a world of change

Despite the churn, Jaeger remains grounded in the essential purpose of wine: connection. “The pace of change has accelerated… But what’s stayed constant is what brought people to wine in the first place. Wine creates connections,” he says. Whether it’s a Bezel Pinot on a Tuesday night or a Mullan Road Cabernet with friends, Cakebread is betting on that truth — and navigating the future with one eye on the vines and one on the consumer. In an era of aluminium tariffs, shifting AVAs and trade brinkmanship, Jaeger’s approach feels almost radical in its simplicity: “We make wines that are balanced, food-friendly and meant to be shared.” For many drinkers, that may be exactly what’s needed now.