What the Latest Rate Dip Means for Small Carriers Part 2

It is May 2025, and if you have been paying any attention to your settlements over the last 30 days, you already know what we are about to talk about today. We are officially staring down another rate dip, one that is not just uncomfortable but potentially damaging if you are still operating without a plan. Spot rates have slid once again, tender rejections are falling like a rock, and the combination of softer volumes and rising global tariffs is stacking headwinds against small carriers.

This is not the time for theories. This is the time for facts, strategy, and action. Because what we are seeing right now is not just a market cycle. It is a separation season.
And you need to be on the right side of it.

Rates Are Dropping Again and Here Is the Proof

Take a hard look at the SONAR charts.

The National Truckload Index (NTI) is sitting at $2.20 per mile today. That is a continuous three-month slide from $2.29 in March and $2.25 in April.

This is not an isolated blip. This is a trend.

• Van Spot Rate Per Mile has dropped nine cents in just 60 days.
  
• Van Contract Rate Per Mile is hovering at $2.27, near its 52-week low.
  
• Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI) is down to 4.95%, a clear sign that carriers are accepting nearly every contracted load offered, with no pricing leverage.
  
• Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) remains soft, barely above 10,000 tendered loads nationally, showing no meaningful surge in demand even during typical spring shipping seasons.
  

Translation for small carriers:
The freight is out there—but not enough to support aggressive rate negotiation.
You are ultimately taking what you can get in this market.

Tariffs Are Quietly Adding Pressure

As if the market dynamics were not enough, May also brings another pressure point—tariffs.

The U.S. government recently expanded tariffs on multiple Chinese goods, including electric vehicles, solar components, and critical manufacturing inputs. The ripples from those decisions are starting to flow into the supply chain, and they are not helping freight volumes.

What does that mean for you?

• Certain sectors like retail and consumer goods could tighten inventory orders
  
• Import-heavy markets like Los Angeles and Savannah might see softer inbound flows
  
• Pricing pressure will continue downstream, making cost control even more critical
  

You are now playing in a freight market that is being squeezed from both sides—demand softness and cost inflation.

That is why you have to move differently now.

What This Rate Climate Really Means for You

If you are a one-truck operator or a boutique fleet under ten trucks, here is the brutal truth.

You cannot bank on rates improving anytime soon.
You cannot depend on load boards to save you.
You cannot operate on emotion.

As The 12 Week Year reminds us:

“Success is not based on intention. It is based on execution.”

And execution in this market looks like controlling the controllables.

Controllable Number One – Operating Efficiency

Your break-even cost per mile is no longer just a nice number to know. It is your survival number.

If you do not know exactly:

• Your fuel cost per mile
  
• Your maintenance cost per mile
  
• Your insurance cost per mile
  
• Your fixed expenses per week
  

You are driving blind.

This rate environment does not reward hustle. It rewards precision.

Every penny saved on maintenance, every idle hour you eliminate, every tire you properly inflate—that is how you build margin in a $2.20 RPM world.

Controllable Number Two – Strategic Market Focus

Look at the spot rate map above. The pockets of rate strength are not national—they are regional.

The Southeast and parts of Texas are showing some resilience.
The Midwest remains volatile but opportunistic if you play it correctly.
The West Coast? Soft, unless you are landing high-value produce or air freight.

Chasing miles from coast to coast will bleed your profits dry.

In this market, smart carriers shorten their lanes, tighten their operating radius, and build density around 1-2 core lanes.

You need to operate like a sniper, not a shotgun.

Controllable Number Three – Shipper Relationships

If you are still waiting for brokers to call you with good freight, you are already behind.

The carriers who will survive this stretch are the ones proactively building direct shipper relationships now, not six months from now.

That means:

• Picking up the phone every week
  
• Sending follow-up emails
  
• Building small lanes with local manufacturers and distributors
  
• Showing up professional, consistent, and reliable
  

It is not glamorous. It is not quick. But it is how you get off the hamster wheel of the spot market.

Remember from The 12 Week Year:

“Action is the bridge between where you are and where you want to be.”

Shipper outreach is not optional anymore. It is necessary.

What You Should Be Doing Right Now

If you are feeling the squeeze, you are not alone.
But feeling it is not an excuse to freeze.

Here are a few things every small carrier should be doing immediately:

• Review every controllable expense on your books
  
• Audit your route density and regional exposure
  
• Make five direct shipper outreach attempts per week minimum
  
• Double down on preventive maintenance to avoid breakdown premiums
  
• Track idle time, speed, and MPG weekly using your ELD data
  
• Reset your revenue goals based on realistic RPM assumptions (between $2.10–$2.30, not $2.70 dreams)
  

The carriers who keep moving, who keep adjusting, and who keep executing daily rhythms will not just survive this rate dip—they will be the ones standing tall when the rebound comes.

Final Word

You cannot fake your way through this market.

Every corner cut, every lazy load booked, every late delivery—those cracks are getting exposed faster than ever.

And if you are serious about being here 12 months from now, you need to be serious about playing the long game starting today.

Inside the Playbook Masterclass, we are not teaching theories.
We are teaching systems.
Systems that work whether the rate is $2.70 or $2.20.
Systems that give you power when the rest of the market is losing control.

Because just like The 12 Week Year says:

“When you choose execution, you choose freedom.”

The question is—what are you choosing today?

Because the clock is ticking, and the market is not waiting for anyone.

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