New world order: Ocean rates up 88% as shippers pounce on lower tariffs

It took one week for the frenzy to set in on the eastbound trans-Pacific.

Mid-high average spot rates paid by shippers in the 75th percentile of the market for transit from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast have surged by an astonishing 88% since May 3, according to analyst Xeneta, now standing at $6,100 per forty-foot equivalent unit. This price jump reflects the willingness of shippers to incur higher costs to ensure the movement of goods, driven by the temporary window created by the U.S.-China reciprocal tariff pause.

In that time, the Far East to U.S. West Coast average price tracked at $5,082 from $2,615 per FEU.

The North Europe to U.S. East Coast average spot rate increased to $2,129 from $2,081 the previous week.

The 90-day respite from higher duties has led liner operators such as Cosco, Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd and HMM to amplify their spot rate charges, Xeneta said, pushing for hikes as steep as $3,000 per FEU.

Meanwhile, mid-high spot rates have also climbed by 67% from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast, reaching $7,180 per FEU by early June, as a significant number of businesses attempt to expedite shipments amid volatile trade conditions. The Far East to U.S. West Coast price was $6,100 per TEU.

However, the price dynamics are not limited to the trans-Pacific trade. The mid-high shipping rate on the Far East to North Europe route has also seen an upward trend, rising by 32% since the end of May and currently priced at $2,704 per FEU. This increase occurs despite the four-week rolling average capacity offered on this trade lane hitting 346,000 TEUs as of June 5, a level not witnessed even during the peak of the  COVID-19 pandemic shipping rush.

“The 88% increase in market mid-high spot rates on the trans-Pacific trade shows shippers are so concerned about getting goods moving again during the 90-day window of opportunity of lower tariffs that they are willing to pay more,” said Xeneta Chief Analyst Peter Sand, in a note. “Right now, it seems carriers are telling shippers to jump, and some are replying, ‘How high?’”

This spike in rates, according to Sand, is a temporary phenomenon. With capacity returning to the trans-Pacific route, the frantic rush of shipments is expected to subside. As supply chains gradually recover and inventories grow, the pricing pressures will diminish. Sand anticipates that spot rates will reach their peak in June before descending as capacity constraints ease.

Additionally, the fluctuations in the trade have ripple effects on other routes, such as Far East to North Europe. Although indirectly affected by the U.S.-China tariff situation, this route feels the impact of global supply chain uncertainties.

“What happens in one region can quickly ripple across global supply chains,” Sand said. The looming threat of increased capacity pressure alongside geopolitical unpredictability is enough to push up spot rates even in these distant markets.

Find more articles by Stuart Chirls here.

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