April sees mixed freight trends on path to recovery

April data from Cass Information Systems showed some stabilization on the freight industry’s path to recovery. The post April sees mixed freight trends on path to recovery appeared first on FreightWaves.

May 15, 2025 - 21:36

April sees mixed freight trends on path to recovery

April was a mixed bag, with freight rates moving higher year over year but volumes staying pressured, according to monthly data from Cass Information Systems. Both datasets did see improvement from March but the outlook remains murky.

Cass’ shipments index increased 0.4% in April from March (0.3% higher seasonally adjusted) but was off 3.6% y/y. The y/y decline was the smallest this year. The last positive y/y reading was January 2023.

The shipments index was off 7.5% on a two-year-stacked comparison.

April 2025	y/y	2-year	m/m	m/m (SA)
Shipments	-3.6%	-7.5%	0.4%	0.3%
Expenditures	1.2%	-15.7%	3.3%	2.2%
TL Linehaul Index	0.9%	-2.9%	-0.5%	NM

Table: Cass Information Systems (SA – seasonally adjusted)

Carriers recently noted that some shippers pulled forward goods ahead of tariffs during the first quarter while others have taken a wait-and-see approach on inventory. Rapidly changing trade policy disrupted normal seasonal freight flows in the quarter and sowed additional doubt into the ultimate duration of an already-protracted freight recession.

Most carriers reacted by reeling in full-year 2025 outlooks or suspending earnings guidance altogether. While uncertainty around demand remains a headwind, carriers have responded by expanding cost savings and equipment utilization initiatives already in place.

“The trade war is having a variety of effects on freight volumes, with significant decreases likely in May and June in international volumes, but likely a rebound in Q3 due to the recent 90-day U.S./China trade deal,” the Cass report said. “Meanwhile, U.S. consumers are still largely buying pre-tariff goods, though retailers will soon start to run out of these.”

Landstar System (NASDAQ: LSTR) was the last truck transportation provider to report first-quarter results. The freight broker said Tuesday that loads hauled by truck trended modestly below normal seasonality in April but that revenue per load was slightly better than historical sequential trends. However, it concluded that the second quarter is unlikely to produce the normal seasonal lift.

The Cass report said that if normal seasonality does occur in May, the shipments index would be off 1% y/y.

SONAR: Contract Load Accepted Volume Index for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) *and 2023 (pink line)*. The Contract Load Accepted Volume Index measures accepted load volumes moving under contractual agreements. It excludes all rejected tenders. To learn more about SONAR, click here.

Somewhat counterintuitively, rates are holding an upward trend.

Truckload carriers were able to capture low- to mid-single-digit contractual increases in the first quarter despite the muddled volume outlook. Carrier failures and asset rationalization have somewhat curbed capacity.

Also, carriers said shippers see the end of the three-year freight recession coming sooner rather than later, which is shaping decision making and creating a willingness among shippers to accept rate increases to maintain alliances with well-capitalized, service-oriented providers.

SONAR: Outbound Tender Reject Index for *2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)*. A proxy for truck capacity, the Outbound Tender Reject Index shows the number of loads being rejected by carriers. *Current tender rejections are outperforming prior-year levels but still not signaling a recovery.*

Cass’ freight expenditures dataset, which measures total freight spend including fuel, increased 3.3% sequentially in April (2.2% higher seasonally adjusted) and was up 1.2% y/y. This was the first y/y increase for the index since January 2023.

Diesel prices were down 11% y/y in April (down 0.5% sequentially).

Netting the decline in shipments from the increase in expenditures implies actual freight rates were up approximately 5% y/y and 3% from March (2% higher seasonally adjusted). The report said the sequential change was led by increases in LTL rates and partially offset by a slight sequential decline in TL linehaul rates.

Less-than-truckload carriers again reported higher yields in the first quarter as most national carriers remained focused on upping service and getting a rate commensurate with the product offered.

The Cass TL linehaul index, which tracks rates without fuel and accessorial surcharges, declined 0.5% from March to April but was up 0.9% y/y. The dataset has increased y/y in each month of 2025 after falling 3% last year and 10% in 2023.

SONAR: National Truckload Index (linehaul only – NTIL) *for 2025 (blue shaded area), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line)*. The NTIL is based on an average of booked spot dry van loads from 250,000 lanes. The NTIL is a seven-day moving average of linehaul spot rates excluding fuel. Spot rates remain slightly higher on a y/y comparison.

The report pointed to a 15-year low in publicly traded TL carrier margins during the first quarter as modest rate increases were “still not enough to offset carriers’ cost headwinds broadly.”

“It’s been 40 months since the first y/y decline in shipments this cycle, and as the freight market downturn wears on, fleets are not particularly well-positioned to weather an even longer storm,” the report said. “So, it’s significant that expenditures turned positive for the first time in 28 months, but we wouldn’t suggest it’ll be smooth sailing from here.”

Data used in the indexes comes from freight bills paid by Cass (NASDAQ: CASS), a provider of payment management solutions. Cass processes $36 billion in freight payables annually on behalf of customers.

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