International Roadcheck tests trucking market

Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Reject Index, National Truckload Index – USA SONAR: OTRI.USA, NTI.USA

Truckload capacity tightened noticeably during the annual CVSA International Roadcheck inspection period, with tender rejection rates (OTRI) increasing by over half a percentage point in just a few days. The National Truckload Index (NTI), which tracks aggregated dry van spot rates, rose approximately 1.8% over a three-day span. While the full impact of the safety blitz on capacity will take several more days to become clear, early indicators suggest this is the most vulnerable the truckload market has been in years.

The market has not experienced sustained tightening capable of driving consistent upward pressure on transportation rates since 2022. Although there are signs that supply and demand are moving closer to equilibrium, the environment remains challenging, and carrier exits continue at elevated levels.

Roadcheck week provides a unique, short-term pulse check on market conditions. Many drivers and owner-operators opt to take time off during this period, as the risk of being placed out of service or cited for violations outweighs the revenue potential of hauling freight. A stronger reaction to the inspection period typically signals a softer, more fragile market vulnerable to disruption.

Since the Roadcheck period is brief, it functions as a quick stress test for underlying market weakness.

Historical context

In 2021, Roadcheck had a limited effect on the market, as spot rates were increasing at a pace of 1%-2% per week. This created strong financial incentives for drivers to stay on the road despite the inspections.

In 2022, despite a collapsing demand environment, the sheer number of carriers on the road — due to the market being in a transitional phase — muted the impact of Roadcheck.

In 2023, the response was more noticeable, though still marginal and complicated by Memorial Day. Last year marked the most significant reaction to Roadcheck in several years.

Market in waiting

Spot rates have declined by 8% over the past three months, reflecting broader stagnation across the economy and freight sector. In this environment, the primary financial incentive for carriers is simply to stay operational and cover basic costs.

Large fleets are typically less concerned about inspections but may be unexpectedly called upon to cover freight normally handled by smaller operators, who often step back during Roadcheck week. This dynamic puts additional strain on large carriers’ networks and drives up rejection rates.

This year introduces a new variable: The Trump administration has authorized states to enforce an existing rule requiring drivers to speak and read English. While it’s unclear if this was a focal point in this year’s inspections, it likely contributed to an increased number of drivers choosing not to operate, further tightening capacity.

Importantly, the surge in rejections wasn’t driven by demand. The National Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) showed stable tender volumes from shippers to carriers, suggesting the tightening stemmed from the supply side.

Looking ahead

Although impactful, Roadcheck week alone will have limited long-term impact on the difficult conditions facing brokers and carriers. The inspection period lasts only three days, and demand is expected to face continued headwinds in the coming weeks.

However, potential disruptions loom. Import bookings surged this past week following the administration’s softening stance on tariffs with China. This could trigger a wave of inbound freight and a summer uptick in demand. While the impact of Roadcheck will fade, evolving trade conditions and possibly low inventory levels could become the catalyst the transportation industry has been anticipating.

About the Chart of the Week

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a chart selection from SONAR that provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.

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