Q4 GDP Tracking: 2.1% to 3.0% Range
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate]emphasis addedFrom Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast by the same amount to +2.6%. [Jan 17th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNowThe GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.7 percent to 3.8 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to real GDP growth from -0.37 percentage points to -0.41 percentage points. [Jan 17th estimate]
From BofA:
Since our last weekly publication, our 4Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up three-tenths to 2.1% q/q saar. [Jan 17th estimate]From Goldman:
emphasis added
Following this morning’s data, we boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast by the same amount to +2.6%. [Jan 17th estimate]And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.0 percent on January 17, unchanged from January 16 after rounding. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, an increase in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 3.7 percent to 3.8 percent was offset by a decrease in the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to real GDP growth from -0.37 percentage points to -0.41 percentage points. [Jan 17th estimate]
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